The number of broadband customers in the UK will continue growing steadily, but at a lower rate, to reach about 21 million by the end of 2012 (19 million consumer lines and two million business ones), according to the latest forecast from Point Topic.
The online analyst predicts that the current downward trend in growth rate of net additions to the number of consumer broadband lines is not just a blip but shows the pattern for the future.
About 330,000 and 550,000 consumer broadband lines were added in the middle two quarters of 2007 respectively, the lowest numbers since 2003, and barely half the growth achieved in the previous two quarters.
Almost 600,000 broadband lines (business and consumer) were added in the third quarter, a better result than projected. The increase was due to good performance by the main broadband operators (Sky, BT Retail and Orange, and to a lesser degree Carphone Warehouse and Virgin Media). Together they added 660,000 lines while smaller competitors shared net losses of over 60,000.
Point Topic adds that one driver of steady growth in the consumer sector will be demographic advance. As people grow older, they will carry their internet usage habits with them into older age groups. This trend will contribute to about a 1% reduction of the number of non-user households each year. Another factor spreading appeal of new applications will be social networking.
One key factor in Point Topic’s forecast is how quickly homes and businesses which are still without the internet will get online.
Tim Johnson, Point Topic’s chief analyst, said: “We forecast that about 4% of the remaining households without internet access will convert each year.
“That’s roughly the average for the past two years as a whole, but much better than in the last few quarters – so it implies improved performance by the industry.”
Point Topic estimates that by the end of 2012, about 73% of homes and 85% of business premises will have a broadband connection.
In the business market, which is expected to have lower barriers to take-up than the consumer sector, about 6.5% of the remaining business premises without broadband will get connected each year.
Recently, In-Stat reported that more than 16 million TV households in the US may be using their broadband service more than they use their TV sets in the next three years (see Broadband Could Become More Popular Than TV In The US), whilst the European Interactive Advertising Association European suggests that internet users are spending an average of 12 hours a week online, an hour more than last year, with youngsters spending more time with their computers rather than the traditional TV set (see Young Europeans Now Spending More Time Online Than With TV).
Meanwhile, Ovum announced in the summer that the fastest growing broadband markets were in countries from Asia-Pacific, Western and Eastern Europe and the Middle East and Africa (see Fastest Growing Broadband Markets Revealed).
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