Analysts admit they underestimated Netflix growth, forecast huge boost

The number of subscribers to video-streaming service Netflix will increase by 82% to 201 million by 2023, according to a new report by Digital TV Research.

2018 will be the largest growth year ever, the report states, with an extra 28 million subscribers. However, growth is expected to slow from 2019.

North America and Western Europe will together supply 62% of Netflix’s total subscriber base by 2023, down from 76% in 2017. Meanwhile, Asia Pacific’s share in 2023 will quadruple from 2017 to 14%.

Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “These forecasts are a lot higher than the last edition of this report. Similar to many other analysts, we underestimated the fast take-up in international markets.”

The top five countries – USA, UK, Brazil, Canada and Germany – will supply 53% of Netflix’s subscribers by 2023, down from 69% in 2017, with the USA expected to add an extra 16 million subscribers by 2023.

In terms of turnover, the streaming platform’s revenues are expected to rise by 155% from $11.3 billion in 2017 to $28.8 billion in 2023, with the top five countries representing 56% of this figure.