Advertising is currently growing faster than gross domestic product (GDP), with global adspend set to increase to 6% in 2006, up from 4.9% in 2005.
ZenithOptimedia projects that worldwide adspend will slow slightly in 2007, reaching 5.6% growth, dipping again in 2008 at 5.3%.
Looking specifically at different media, the agency expects internet advertising revenue to overtake outdoor in 2007, with the media forecast to attract 6.5% of adspend in 2008, up from 4.5% in 2005.
By 2007, the internet is expected to overtake outdoor in volume, and by 2008 will be catching up with radio.
ZenithOptimedia forecast that between 2005 and 2008 six of the ten largest contributors to advertising growth, and eleven of the twenty largest will be emerging markets. Brazil, China, Indonesia, Mexico, Poland and Russia are all top-ten contributors of new ad dollars, with their advertising markets expected to grow by $19.2 billion between 2005 and 2008.
China looks set to be the fifth-largest ad market in 2008, up from seventh position in 2005, enjoying growth of 66% over the three-year forecast period.
The agencies latest estimates are slightly more optimistic than previously, revising 2006 adspend up to 6%, up from earlier forecasts of 5.9% (see ZenithOptimedia Forecasts Steady Adspend Growth).
Major Media Advertising Expenditure ($ million) | |||||
2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | |
North America | 168,250 | 173.271 | 182,209 | 189,878 | 197,369 |
Europe | 104,567 | 108,448 | 113,010 | 117,726 | 122,657 |
Asia-Pacific | 78,802 | 83,162 | 88,819 | 95,420 | 101,816 |
Latin America | 15,546 | 18,021 | 19,754 | 21,090 | 22,244 |
Africa/M. East/ROW | 18,160 | 21,206 | 24,581 | 28,043 | 32,190 |
World | 385,324 | 404,108 | 429,373 | 452,157 | 476,276 |
ZenithOptimedia, April 2006 |
Major Media Advertising Expenditure Year on Year Change (%) | |||||
2004 v 03 | 2005 v 04 | 2006 v 05 | 2007 v 06 | 2008 v 07 | |
North America | 6.1 | 3 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 3.9 |
of which USA | 6 | 2.9 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 4 |
Europe | 6.4 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
Asia-Pacific | 6.5 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 6.7 |
Latin America | 13.4 | 15.9 | 9.6 | 6.8 | 5.5 |
Africa/M. East/ROW | 27.7 | 16.8 | 15.9 | 14.1 | 14.8 |
World | 7.4 | 4.9 | 6 | 5.6 | 5.3 |
ZenithOptimedia, April 2006 |