GroupM expects UK advertising spending to fall 11.2% in 2009, with global spending predicted to drop 4.4% to $425 billion.
Media USD m, current prices | |||
2007 | 2008f | 2009f | |
North America | 170,983 | 172,033 | 164,770 |
yoy% | 2.7 | 0.6 | -4.2 |
Latin America | 16,858 | 18,766 | 20,296 |
yoy% | 11.3 | 11.3 | 8.2 |
Western Europe | 108,171 | 107,204 | 99,984 |
yoy% | 6.3 | -0.9 | -6.7 |
Emerging Europe | 15,532 | 17,040 | 14,355 |
yoy% | 19.1 | 9.7 | -15.8 |
Asia-Pacific (all) | 109,452 | 116,603 | 112,784 |
yoy% | 7.5 | 6.5 | -3.3 |
North Asia | 38,532 | 45,475 | 46,426 |
yoy% | 14.5 | 18.0 | 2.1 |
ASEAN | 8,076 | 8,860 | 9,071 |
yoy% | 9.2 | 9.7 | 2.4 |
Middle East & Africa | 10,726 | 12,968 | 12,893 |
yoy% | 23.1 | 20.9 | -0.6 |
World | 431,721 | 444,612 | 425,082 |
yoy% | 6.1 | 3.0 | -4.4 |
Source: GroupM, March 2009 |
In December 2008, GroupM’s twice-yearly This Year, Next Year report predicted that measured media spending in 2009 would drop 0.2% to $458 billion globally and decline 3% in the US to $157 billion (see Global ad spend to fall 0.2% in 2009).
2009 Media Investment and % Change v 2008 (larger countries) | |||
Nominal | Real | USDm 2009 | |
USA | -4.3 | -6.0 | 155,129 |
Japan | -10.5 | -11.2 | 43,174 |
China | 3.2 | -1.1 | 36,280 |
Germany | -0.9 | -2.2 | 22,556 |
UK | -11.2 | -13.7 | 15,541 |
France | -4.7 | -6.2 | 13,326 |
Italy | -6.1 | -7.8 | 12,229 |
Brazil | 10.5 | 5.1 | 10,337 |
Canada | -2.9 | -5.0 | 9,641 |
Spain | -13.8 | -16.0 | 7,903 |
Australia | -1.7 | -5.1 | 7,778 |
Russia | -22.8 | -31.0 | 6,008 |
Netherlands | -6.0 | -8.4 | 5,210 |
India | 6.0 | -0.7 | 4,707 |
Source: GroupM, March 2009 |
The forecast for spending in China dropped to 3.2% growth this year (a real fall of 1.1%), from the 13% GroupM forecast in December. It attributes this decline is attributed to consumer retrenchment and a credit crunch in retail distribution, which government stimulus might alleviate.
Media Investment yoy%, adjusted for CPI | |||
2007 | 2008f | 2009f | |
North America | -0.1 | -3.4 | -6.0 |
Latin America | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 |
Western Europe | 4.1 | -4.1 | -8.5 |
Emerging Europe | 11.5 | 1.1 | -18.1 |
Asia-Pacific (all) | 4.9 | 1.7 | -6.8 |
North Asia | 9.8 | 11.3 | -2.1 |
ASEAN | 5.2 | 0.2 | -5.3 |
Middle East & Africa | 14.9 | 7.7 | -8.0 |
World | 3 | -1.6 | -7.0 |
Source: GroupM, March 2009 |
Earlier this month, Carat forecast a 7.1% fall in UK adspend this year, with worldwide spend falling 5.8% (see Carat forecasts 7.1% drop in UK advertising spend this year).