Analysts at Lehman Brothers are expecting BSkyB to report an increase of 145,000 digital satellite subscribers in its third quarter financial results, which are due for release on 13 May.
These additions would take Sky’s satellite customer base to 6.7 million, up 13.9% year on year and ahead of Lehman’s previous 12.5% growth forecast. The forecasts are slightly ahead of those by Merrill Lynch, which expects Sky to add 137,000 customers in the quarter (see
BSkyB Is ‘Haven Of Growth’ In Uncertain Media Sector).
Sky itself has held a target of 7 million customers by the end of this year. Previously, this target was considered extremely hard to attain as it implied no reduction in the rate of net additions.
Now, though, it appears that Sky would have virtually achieved the target even after discounting the extra subscribers it picked up following the demise of ITV Digital (thought to be in the region of 200,000 across 2003).
With the ITV Digital subs factored in, Lehman Brothers predicts that the group will hit 7.06 million by the end of this year. It also reckons that BSkyB had raised its share of the pay-TV market from 54% a year ago to over 66% by the end of 2002.
The broker forecasts that Q3 revenues will rise by 13.2% to £800 million, whilst earnings grow by 38% to £82 million. Merrill Lynch concurs, putting revenue growth at 12.9% to £799 million and earnings up 36% at £80.7 million.
