Long-Term UK TV Revenue Forecasts From Carat
UK television revenues are set to hit £3.1 billion this year, representing a 3.1% growth over 2001, according to forecasts from buying agency Carat.
| UK Television Revenue Forecasts (£ million) | |||||||
| 2001A | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | |
| Jan | 245.5 | 215.6 | 230.7 | 240.0 | 249.6 | 259.5 | 269.9 |
| Feb | 255.1 | 222.8 | 233.9 | 243.3 | 253.0 | 263.1 | 273.6 |
| Mar | 286.4 | 275.3 | 286.3 | 297.7 | 309.6 | 322.0 | 334.9 |
| Apr | 272.2 | 262.4 | 280.8 | 292.0 | 303.7 | 315.8 | 328.5 |
| May | 246.5 | 280.2 | 291.5 | 303.1 | 315.2 | 327.8 | 341.0 |
| Jun | 232.3 | 258.7 | 263.9 | 274.4 | 285.4 | 296.8 | 308.7 |
| Jul | 212.0 | 230.7 | 237.6 | 247.1 | 257.0 | 267.3 | 278.0 |
| Aug | 203.3 | 218.8 | 229.7 | 238.9 | 248.5 | 258.4 | 268.7 |
| Sep | 251.5 | 283.0 | 297.2 | 309.0 | 321.4 | 334.3 | 347.6 |
| Oct | 285.2 | 313.6 | 329.3 | 342.5 | 356.2 | 370.4 | 385.2 |
| Nov | 300.8 | 323.6 | 336.5 | 350.0 | 364.0 | 378.5 | 393.7 |
| Dec | 225.2 | 226.1 | 239.6 | 249.2 | 259.2 | 269.6 | 280.4 |
| Total | 3,016 | 3,111 | 3,257 | 3,387 | 3,523 | 3,664 | 3,810 |
| Source: Carat, July 2002 | |||||||
On a monthly basis, revenue in each successive year is predicted to be higher than the previous year.
The chart below illustrates the strong seasonal patterns in television advertising spend, with a surge running up to Christmas, a lull just after and a pick-up in spring and early summer, followed by another lull in summertime.
Monthly growth rates for 2001 were all negative; 2002 started negative but is now picking up and expected to remain positive for the remainder of the year. Following this, 2003 is predicted to show a more modest growth than H2 2002, but will be much more solid throughout the year.
Data for 2004 onwards have been left off the graph as the forecasts are currently set at 4.0% growth across the board for these years.
| UK Television Revenue Growth Forecasts (%) | |||||||
| 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | |
| Jan | -1.4 | -12.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Feb | -0.1 | -12.7 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Mar | -0.2 | -3.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Apr | -13.2 | -3.6 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| May | -15.2 | 13.7 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Jun | -17.9 | 11.3 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Jul | -6.4 | 8.9 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Aug | -4.8 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Sep | -16.1 | 12.5 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Oct | -11.1 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Nov | -7.1 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Dec | -7.9 | 0.4 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Total | -8.8 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Source: Carat, July 2002 | |||||||