Myers Upgrades US Ad Forecasts Following Promising Upfronts

The more optimistic outlook comes just a month after Myers found evidence for a ‘continued underlying weakness’ in the television upfront market (see US Network TV Marketplace Remains Weak, Finds Myers). Myers says he is remaining cautious due to indications that the stock market and general economy are not sufficiently recovered and marketers remaining reluctant to commit to significant increases in ad spending.

“Consumer spending remains strong even in the face of declining consumer confidence, escalating war in the Mideast, continued threats of terrorist actions, degenerating confidence in corporate accounting and reporting, and advancing actions by New York State Attorney General Elliot Spitzer against research analysts for major investment firms,” said Myers today.

The report says that “unless these negative forces, and unforeseen future events, ultimately cause the economy to reverse itself and tail back into a recession, marketers can be expected to equal their 2001 advertising investments in 2002, slightly increase their commitments in the Upfront market, and plan for 2 to 4% spending increases overall in 2003.”

JMR is forecasting that broadcast network revenues in 2002 will decline 2.2%, one of only three media categories that will suffer declines for the year, as shown.

US Advertising Spend, Share And Growth Forecasts, By Medium
ÂÂ	2001			2002			2003
	% Growth	$ (million)	% Share	% Growth	$ (million)	% Share	% Growth	$ (million)	% Share
Newspapers	-8.5	44,300	28.5	-5.0	42,085	27.2	-1.0	41,664	26.3
Broadcast Networks	-5.0	16,120	10.4	-2.0	15,798	10.2	2.5	16,193	10.2
Local & National Spot TV	-14.9	19,075	12.3	4.0	19,838	12.8	1.0	20,036	12.7
Broadcast Syndication	-18.0	2,565	1.6	5.0	2,693	1.7	3.0	2,774	1.8
Radio	-3.6	18,400	11.8	4.0	19,136	12.3	3.0	19,710	12.4
Yellow Pages	2.8	13,570	8.7	3.0	13,977	9.0	-1.0	13,837	8.7
Magazines	-4.9	16,213	10.4	-6.0	15,240	9.8	2.0	15,454	9.8
Network Cable Television	0.8	12,100	7.8	4.0	12,584	8.1	9.0	13,717	8.7
Local/Regional Cable TV	5.0	3,837	2.5	3.0	3,952	2.6	12.0	4,426	2.8
Online	0.0	4,300	2.8	4.0	4,472	2.9	15.0	5,143	3.2
Outdoor	-0.8	5,135	3.3	1.0	5,186	3.3	2.0	5,290	3.3
Total	-5.9	155,614	100.0	-0.4	154,960	100.0	2.2	158,334	100.0
Source: Jack Myers Report, May 2002

“These estimates reflect marketers’ expectations that the general economy will continue to improve slightly during the next several quarters. If the economy fails to improve, consumer confidence and spending weaken, or unforeseen terrorist activity results in economic declines, JMR will issue revised forecasts,” the report stated.