Press Advertising Growth Forecasts From Zenith Media
European newspaper advertising is expected to fall by 3.4% in 2002, whilst consumer magazine revenues drop by 3.6%, according to Zenith Media figures, analysed by Merrill Lynch.
| European Press Adspend Forecasts | |||||
| 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | |
| Magazines | 8.3 | -0.6 | -3.6 | 1.7 | 4.8 |
| Newspapers | 9.8 | -5.5 | -3.4 | 1.3 | 3.5 |
| Source: Zenith Media, December 2002 (with updates) | |||||
Consumer magazines UK consumer magazine advertising has performed relatively well in the fourth quarter of 2002, although the full year is still expected to show a 6.7% decline in revenues.
UK magazines are forecast by Zenith to show a 0.6% decline in 2003, rising to a 1.4% growth in 2004. This is lower than the overall European growth, which is predicted to be 1.7% in 2003 and 4.8% in 2004.
| European Consumer Magazine Advertising Growth Forecasts | |||||
| 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | |
| France | 7.6 | -1.6 | -3.0 | 1.5 | 3.9 |
| Germany | 6.3 | -3.5 | -6.2 | 0.8 | 6.7 |
| Netherlands | 15.2 | 3.2 | -2.9 | 0.9 | 2.5 |
| Italy | 12.5 | 4.1 | -4.2 | 3.6 | 4.1 |
| UK | 5.1 | -1.9 | -6.7 | -0.6 | 1.4 |
| Source: Zenith Media, December 2002 (with updates) | |||||
Analysts say that they are cautious on 2003 consumer magazine advertising, given the expected slow-down in consumer spending (see INSIGHTanalysis: Media Healthcheck – January 2003).
Newspapers Newspaper adspend in the UK is expected to fall by 2.9% in 2002. Zenith predicts that it will return to positive this year, with a 0.7% growth and then rise 1.1% in 2004. In this respect, the UK is weaker than Europe for the next couple of years, but outperformed the continent in 2002, as shown.
| European Newspaper Advertising Growth Forecasts | |||||
| 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | |
| France | 11.1 | -8.4 | -5.5 | 0.5 | 2.0 |
| Germany | 6.8 | -8.0 | -4.7 | 0.9 | 6.0 |
| Netherlands | 10.0 | -5.5 | -4.7 | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| Italy | 15.1 | -5.8 | -6.2 | 2.6 | 3.0 |
| UK | 12.1 | -2.2 | -2.9 | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Source: Zenith Media, December 2002 (with updates) | |||||
US and Asia-Pacific The forecasts for US and Asia-Pacific press advertising growth are shown below.
| US Press Adspend Forecasts | |||||
| 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | |
| Magazines | 13.5 | -10.0 | -6.0 | -2.0 | -0.5 |
| Newspapers | 11.4 | -6.0 | -1.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Source: Zenith Media, December 2002 (with updates) | |||||
| Asia-Pacific Press Adspend Forecasts | |||||
| 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | |
| Magazines | 9.5 | -2.3 | -2.1 | 1.5 | 2.4 |
| Newspapers | 13.7 | -4.5 | 0.1 | 3.6 | 3.9 |
| Source: Zenith Media, December 2002 (with updates) | |||||