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UK Cable, Satellite & DTT Penetration Forecasts From Merrill Lynch – July 2002

UK Cable, Satellite & DTT Penetration Forecasts From Merrill Lynch – July 2002

The latest Merrill Lynch UK television industry forecasts of growth and subscribers by multiple platforms are shown below.

Further analysis of these figures will follow shortly in the Forecasts section of MediaTelINSIGHT. The previous set of forecasts from Merrill Lynch can be found UK Cable, Satellite & DTT Penetration Forecasts From Merrill Lynch – February 2002.
Cable, Satellite & DTT Penetration Forecasts In UK 
                             
   1997  1998  1999  2000  2001  2002  2003  2004  2005  2006  2007  2008  2009  2010 
No. UK TV Households 23,710 23,915 24,102 24,283 24,465 24,648 24,833 25,019 25,207 25,207 25,587 25,779 25,972 26,167
Total UK DTH & Cable & DTT Subscribers 6,027 6,389 7,960 9,446 10,361 10,129 10,932 11,901 12,752 13,521 14,157 14,743 15,130 15,514
Total Digital Pay TV Subscribers   244 2,737 6,521 8,721 9,208 10,869 11,899 12,750 13,521 14,157 14,743 15,130 15,514
Total Digital TV Homes   244 2,737 6,546 8,796 10,317 12,478 14,108 15,659 17,180 18,566 19,752 20,639 21,523
Total Digital non Pay TV Homes       25 75 1,109 1,609 2,209 2,909 3,659 4,409 5,009 5,509 6,009
BSkyB Penetration Of UK H/holds % 14.7 14.0 16.6 20.2 22.5 25.6 27.6 28.4 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.0
Broadband Cable Penetration Of UK H/holds % 22.2 23.7 25.7 28.1 29.1 29.9 29.9 31.5 32.3 33.1 33.9 34.7 34.9 35.1
ITV Digital Penetration Of UK H/holds %   0.1 2.2 4.0 5.0                  
DSL Penetration Of UK H/holds %       0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.1 4.4 5.5 6.4 6.8 7.1
Total DTH,B.Cable,ITV Digital & DSL Pen. Of UK % HHs 24.7 25.9 32.3 38.9 42.4 41.1 44.0 47.6 50.6 53.2 55.3 57.2 58.3 59.3
DSL (Digital Subscriber Line) Subscribers       9 15 50 168 410 779 1,111 1,402 1,651 1,753 1,858
Total Cable (in 000s) 2,541 3,012 3,422 3,562 3,618 3,776 3,917 4,377 4,700 4,994 5,209 5,429 5,609 5,793
Broadband Homes Passed 10,694 11,904 12,650 12,664 12,451 12,576 12,576 13,110 13,419 13,690 13,965 14,243 14,524 14,810
Broadband Cable % Built Out 45.1 49.8 52.5 52.2 50.9 51.0 51.0 52.4 53.2 53.9 54.6 55.3 55.9 56.6
Broadband Digital Cable Penetration % 10.0 11.8 13.5 14.7 14.8 15.3 15.8 17.5 18.6 19.7 20.4 21.1 21.6 22.1
BSkyB Analogue 3,486 3,133 1,947 233                    
BSkyB Digital   225 2,064 4,667 5,495 6,303 6,846 7,114 7,273 7,416 7,546 7,663 7,768 7,863
Subscribers                             
DTT (Digital Terrestrial TV) Subscribers   19 527 975 1,234 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
BSkyB UK Residential DTH Subscribers 3,486 3,358 4,011 4,899 5,495 6,303 6,846 7,114 7,273 7,416 7,546 7,663 7,768 7,863
UK Broadband Cable Subscribers 2,374 2,826 3,245 3,562 3,618 3,776 3,917 4,377 4,700 4,994 5,209 5,429 5,609 5,793
UK Narrowband Cable Subscribers 81 89 27                      
Cable Digital Subscribers     146 870 1,977 2,855 3,854 4,375 4,698 4,994 5,209 5,429   5,793
Cable Analogue Subscribers 2,374 2,826 3,099 2,692 1,640 921 63 2 2          
SMATV Subscribers 86 97 150 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
% of Pay TV Subs that are Digital   3.8 34.4 69.0 84.2 90.9 99.4 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
% of TV Homes that are Digital   1.0 11.4 27.0 36.0 41.9 50.2 56.4 62.1 67.6 72.6 76.6 79.5 82.3
Growth                             
BSkyB Res DTH 3.9 -3.7 19.4 22.1 12.2 14.7 8.6 3.9 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.2
Broadband Cable 26.7 19.1 14.8 9.8 1.6 4.4 3.7 11.7 7.4 6.3 4.3 4.2 3.3 3.3
ITV Digital TV       85.0 26.6                  
DSL         65.0 236.0 237.5 143.5 90.3 42.5 26.2 17.8 6.2 6.0
DTH+Broadband Cable+DTT + DSL 12.8 6.0 24.6 18.7 9.7 -2.2 7.9 8.9 7.2 6.0 4.7 2.6 2.6 2.5
                             
Source: Merrill Lynch, July 2002 

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