UK Cable, Satellite & DTT Penetration Forecasts From Merrill Lynch – July 2002

The latest Merrill Lynch UK television industry forecasts of growth and subscribers by multiple platforms are shown below.
Further analysis of these figures will follow shortly in the Forecasts section of MediaTelINSIGHT. The previous set of forecasts from Merrill Lynch can be found UK Cable, Satellite & DTT Penetration Forecasts From Merrill Lynch – February 2002.
Cable, Satellite & DTT Penetration Forecasts In UK | ||||||||||||||
1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | |
No. UK TV Households | 23,710 | 23,915 | 24,102 | 24,283 | 24,465 | 24,648 | 24,833 | 25,019 | 25,207 | 25,207 | 25,587 | 25,779 | 25,972 | 26,167 |
Total UK DTH & Cable & DTT Subscribers | 6,027 | 6,389 | 7,960 | 9,446 | 10,361 | 10,129 | 10,932 | 11,901 | 12,752 | 13,521 | 14,157 | 14,743 | 15,130 | 15,514 |
Total Digital Pay TV Subscribers | 244 | 2,737 | 6,521 | 8,721 | 9,208 | 10,869 | 11,899 | 12,750 | 13,521 | 14,157 | 14,743 | 15,130 | 15,514 | |
Total Digital TV Homes | 244 | 2,737 | 6,546 | 8,796 | 10,317 | 12,478 | 14,108 | 15,659 | 17,180 | 18,566 | 19,752 | 20,639 | 21,523 | |
Total Digital non Pay TV Homes | 25 | 75 | 1,109 | 1,609 | 2,209 | 2,909 | 3,659 | 4,409 | 5,009 | 5,509 | 6,009 | |||
BSkyB Penetration Of UK H/holds % | 14.7 | 14.0 | 16.6 | 20.2 | 22.5 | 25.6 | 27.6 | 28.4 | 28.9 | 29.2 | 29.5 | 29.7 | 29.9 | 30.0 |
Broadband Cable Penetration Of UK H/holds % | 22.2 | 23.7 | 25.7 | 28.1 | 29.1 | 29.9 | 29.9 | 31.5 | 32.3 | 33.1 | 33.9 | 34.7 | 34.9 | 35.1 |
ITV Digital Penetration Of UK H/holds % | 0.1 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 5.0 | ||||||||||
DSL Penetration Of UK H/holds % | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 7.1 | |||
Total DTH,B.Cable,ITV Digital & DSL Pen. Of UK % HHs | 24.7 | 25.9 | 32.3 | 38.9 | 42.4 | 41.1 | 44.0 | 47.6 | 50.6 | 53.2 | 55.3 | 57.2 | 58.3 | 59.3 |
DSL (Digital Subscriber Line) Subscribers | 9 | 15 | 50 | 168 | 410 | 779 | 1,111 | 1,402 | 1,651 | 1,753 | 1,858 | |||
Total Cable (in 000s) | 2,541 | 3,012 | 3,422 | 3,562 | 3,618 | 3,776 | 3,917 | 4,377 | 4,700 | 4,994 | 5,209 | 5,429 | 5,609 | 5,793 |
Broadband Homes Passed | 10,694 | 11,904 | 12,650 | 12,664 | 12,451 | 12,576 | 12,576 | 13,110 | 13,419 | 13,690 | 13,965 | 14,243 | 14,524 | 14,810 |
Broadband Cable % Built Out | 45.1 | 49.8 | 52.5 | 52.2 | 50.9 | 51.0 | 51.0 | 52.4 | 53.2 | 53.9 | 54.6 | 55.3 | 55.9 | 56.6 |
Broadband Digital Cable Penetration % | 10.0 | 11.8 | 13.5 | 14.7 | 14.8 | 15.3 | 15.8 | 17.5 | 18.6 | 19.7 | 20.4 | 21.1 | 21.6 | 22.1 |
BSkyB Analogue | 3,486 | 3,133 | 1,947 | 233 | ||||||||||
BSkyB Digital | 225 | 2,064 | 4,667 | 5,495 | 6,303 | 6,846 | 7,114 | 7,273 | 7,416 | 7,546 | 7,663 | 7,768 | 7,863 | |
Subscribers | ||||||||||||||
DTT (Digital Terrestrial TV) Subscribers | 19 | 527 | 975 | 1,234 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
BSkyB UK Residential DTH Subscribers | 3,486 | 3,358 | 4,011 | 4,899 | 5,495 | 6,303 | 6,846 | 7,114 | 7,273 | 7,416 | 7,546 | 7,663 | 7,768 | 7,863 |
UK Broadband Cable Subscribers | 2,374 | 2,826 | 3,245 | 3,562 | 3,618 | 3,776 | 3,917 | 4,377 | 4,700 | 4,994 | 5,209 | 5,429 | 5,609 | 5,793 |
UK Narrowband Cable Subscribers | 81 | 89 | 27 | |||||||||||
Cable Digital Subscribers | 146 | 870 | 1,977 | 2,855 | 3,854 | 4,375 | 4,698 | 4,994 | 5,209 | 5,429 | 5,793 | |||
Cable Analogue Subscribers | 2,374 | 2,826 | 3,099 | 2,692 | 1,640 | 921 | 63 | 2 | 2 | |||||
SMATV Subscribers | 86 | 97 | 150 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
% of Pay TV Subs that are Digital | 3.8 | 34.4 | 69.0 | 84.2 | 90.9 | 99.4 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | |
% of TV Homes that are Digital | 1.0 | 11.4 | 27.0 | 36.0 | 41.9 | 50.2 | 56.4 | 62.1 | 67.6 | 72.6 | 76.6 | 79.5 | 82.3 | |
Growth | ||||||||||||||
BSkyB Res DTH | 3.9 | -3.7 | 19.4 | 22.1 | 12.2 | 14.7 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
Broadband Cable | 26.7 | 19.1 | 14.8 | 9.8 | 1.6 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 11.7 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
ITV Digital TV | 85.0 | 26.6 | ||||||||||||
DSL | 65.0 | 236.0 | 237.5 | 143.5 | 90.3 | 42.5 | 26.2 | 17.8 | 6.2 | 6.0 | ||||
DTH+Broadband Cable+DTT + DSL | 12.8 | 6.0 | 24.6 | 18.7 | 9.7 | -2.2 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 |
Source: Merrill Lynch, July 2002 |