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UK Government Confident About 2010 Analogue Switch Off

UK Government Confident About 2010 Analogue Switch Off

As NTL was celebrating its 1 millionth subscriber (see 1 Million Now Subscribe To NTL Digital), the UK government were reinforcing the message that analogue services will be switched off by 2010. The digital switchover is reliant on 95% of the population having access to digital services, meaning that services must be available and affordable to the vast majority of the population.

Currently BSkyB has 5.5 million digital subscribers, dominating the market. The recent figures from NTL put the company a close third behind the recently rebranded ITVdigital whose subscribers currently number around 1.1 million. 564,000 homes connect via Telewest, NTL’s partner in broadband.
Merrill Lynch Forecasts For UK Cable And Satellite Penetration 
(figures in 000s)  1997  1998  1999  2000  2001  2002  2003  2004  2005  2006  2007  2008 
No. UK TV Households 23,710 23,915 24,102 24,283 24,465 24,648 24,833 25,019 25,207 25,396 25,587 25,779
Total UK DTH & Cable & DTT Subscribers 6,027 6,389 7,809 9,569 11,149 12,732 14,442 15,844 17,200 18,464 19,448 20,340
Total Digital Pay TV Subscribers   244 2,737 6,521 9,262 11,650 14,058 15,713 17,063 18,389 19,373 20,265
Total Digital TV Homes   244 2,737 6,571 9,962 13,100 16,258 18,663 20,763 22,839 24,573 25,779
BSkyB Penetration Of UK H/holds % 15 14 16 20 24 26 28 28 28 29 29 29
Broadband Cable Penetration Of UK H/holds % 10 12 14 15 16 18 20 22 24 27 28 29
OnDigital Penetration Of UK H/holds %   0 2 4 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 11
DSL Penetration Of UK H/holds %       0 0 1 3 4 6 7 8 9
Total DTH,B.Cable,OnDigital & DSL Pen. Of UK % HHs 25 26 32 39 45 51 58 63 68 72 76 79
DSL (Digital Subscriber Line) Subscribers       9 43 206 609 1,001 1,379 1,720 2,020 2,279
Total Cable (in 000s) 2,541 3,012 3,422 3,662 3,986 4,461 4,995 5,601 6,225 6,808 7,223 7,598
Broadband Cable Penetration % 22 24 26 27 28 29 29 30 31 32 33 33
BSkyB Analogue 3,486 3,133 1,796 257                
BSkyB Digital   225 2,064 4,667 5,771 6,372 6,860 7,024 7,171 7,305 7,425 7,534
DTT (Digital Terrestrial TV) Subscribers   19 527 975 1,349 1,692 1,978 2,218 2,424 2,632 2,780 2,930
UK Broadband Cable Subscribers 2,374 2,826 3,245 3,586 3,911 4,386 4,919 5,526 6,150 6,732 7,148 7,523
UK Narrowband Cable Subscribers 81 89 27                  
Cable Digital     146 870 2,098 3,379 4,611 5,471 6,089 6,732 7,148 7,523
Cable Analogue 2,374 2,826 3,099 2,716 1,813 1,007 308 55 62      
% of Pay TV Subs that are Digital   4 35 68 83 92 97 99 99 100 100 100
% of TV Homes that are Digital   1 11 27 41 53 66 75 82 90 96 100
BSkyB Res DTH (Growth) 4 -4 15 28 17 10 8 2 2 2 2 2
Broadband Cable (Growth) 27 19 15 11 9 12 12 12 11 10 6 5
ONdigital TV (Growth)       85 38 25 17 12 9 9 6 5
Source: Merrill Lynch estimates, 04/01 

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