UK Will Not See Real Terms Ad Growth Until 2004, Say Zenith Forecasts

Real terms advertising growth will not return in the UK until 2004, according to the latest ad forecasts from Zenith Media, released today.
US recovery will be faster according to the figures. Adspend there will grow in real terms by 0.4% in 2003 and by 2.1% in 2004, after a decline of 1.8% in 2002.
Nominal growth In nominal terms, that is if inflation is not accounted for, UK growth is set to be 2.6% in 2003 and 3.8% in 2004, following a 1.9% decline this year. These are downgraded forecasts from Zenith, reflecting a ‘lag’ in US spend as advertising struggles to keep up with the improving economy (see Zenith Downgrades ‘Overly Optimistic’ 2002 Forecasts).
Zenith Media advertising forecasts | |||||||||
Nominal | Real terms | ||||||||
2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | ||
France | -4.9 | -0.2 | 2.8 | 3.5 | -6.6 | -1.3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | |
Germany | -5.5 | -2.8 | 0.5 | 6.3 | -7.8 | -4.2 | -0.4 | 5.0 | |
Italy | -3.7 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 4.6 | -6.0 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | |
Spain | -5.8 | -4.9 | 1.3 | 4.0 | -8.7 | -7.2 | -1.0 | 1.5 | |
UK | -4.4 | -1.9 | 2.6 | 3.8 | -6.1 | -3.6 | -0.4 | 0.9 | |
Five-country Europe | -4.9 | -1.6 | 2.0 | 4.6 | -7.0 | -3.2 | 0.2 | 2.7 | |
US | -6.5 | -1.8 | 2.0 | 4.2 | -9.1 | -3.3 | 0.4 | 2.1 | |
Japan | -2.0 | -2.9 | 1.3 | 1.4 | -1.3 | -2.1 | 2.1 | 1.4 | |
Seven-country total | -5.4 | -1.9 | 1.9 | 3.8 | -7.4 | -3.0 | 0.7 | 2.1 | |
Source: Zenith Optimedia Group, April 2002 |