Universal McCann Expert Upbeat On Ad Prospects

Robert Coen, the agency’s venerable advertising prophet, is predicting that US adspend will increase by 5.3% to $249.3 billion in 2003. This compares with the 1.9% growth forecast by Zenith Optimedia (see Zenith Optimedia Predicts 2.9% Global Ad Growth In 2003) and the 2.8% increase put forward by Jack Myers (see Myers Is Positive Over US Adspend, 2.8% 2003 Growth Predicted).

“Except for the uncertainties over Iraq, we would expect a much improved rate of growth for US advertising next year,” said Coen in his Insider’s Report. “The shakeout in high-tech, financial and dotcom spending has been a drag on ad growth in 2001 and 2002, but the worst appears to be over.”

He claims that telecoms, alcohol, tourism and travel companies are all increasing their spend and ad growth of 2.6% is expected for 2002, slightly higher than previously anticipated (see Coen Predicts ‘Modest’ Adspend Growth).

“Most of the biggest users of advertising are returning to higher ad budget levels. If this trend continues well into the new year, it could stimulate good ad growth in 2003,” claimed the author.

US National Adspend Forecasts
	2002		2003
	Projections ($m)	% Change Over 2001	Projections ($m)	% Change Over 2002
Four TV Networks	15,300	7.0	15,990	4.5
Spot TV	10,335	12.0	10,535	2.0
Cable TV	11,890	0.0	12,775	7.5
Syndication TV	3,135	1.0	3,260	4.0
Radio	4,030	10.0	4,235	5.0
Magazines	10,990	-2.0	11,590	5.5
Newspapers	6,680	1.0	7,080	6.0
Consumer Media Sub-Total	62,360	4.1	65,465	5.7
Direct Mail	45,860	2.5	49,055	7.0
Yellow Pages	2,100	0.5	2,225	5.5
Internet	5,465	-5.0	5,465	0.0
Other National Media	29,830	1.6	31,185	5.0
Total National	145,615	2.7	153,395	5.3
Source: Universal McCann, December 2002

International forecasts Hostilities in the Middle East could prove a threat to economic stability but given the current circumstances, Universal McCann is confident that a revival in the US will spark an upturn in the global advertising market. Coen estimates that worldwide revenues will increase by 4.9% to $469.8 billion in 2003.

After a difficult time in 2001, the UK market has picked up slightly this year and Robert Coen anticipates growth of almost 6% in 2003. Japan will also see a much needed boost in adspend after two years of decline.

Advertising Outlook In Key Industrialized Countries
(% change over previous year in local currency)
	2001	2002	2003
Japan	-0.9	-6.0	5.3
Germany	-6.3	-6.5	-2.5
UK	-12.1	2.0	5.9
France	-1.3	0.0	3.0
Italy	13.0	-3.9	-1.5
Spain	-6.0	-0.3	3.0
Canada	-3.5	3.8	4.1
Mexico	8.4	7.4	12.3
Australia	-6.8	-2.6	3.0
Netherlands	-2.9	6.0	0.0
Source: Universal McCann, December 2002