Will they or won’t they? US TikTok ban still up in the air
This article has been edited after publication to reflect recent developments.
Analysis
TikTok went dark in the US on Sunday after its supreme court upheld the ban as constitutional, but doubt has been sowed over whether the ban will actually be enforced by the incoming Donald Trump administration.
Just days before the ban was set to come into effect on 19 January, officials from Joe Biden’s administration signalled that they would not enforce the ban before Trump is inaugurated on 20 January — in effect leaving TikTok’s fate in Trump’s hands.
Trump told NBC News in a phone interview that he would “most likely” grant TikTok a 90-day delay to allow its owner, ByteDance, more time to seek a US buyer.
Earlier in the week, the platform warned advertisers that it would automatically pause US ad campaigns on the platform on 19 January, although historical data, campaign performance reports and creative assets will remain accessible.
If the ban is later postponed, advertisers would then be able to manually restart campaigns.
“The supreme court’s ruling today is just the start of a much bigger battle,” Ben Jeffries, CEO of marketing agency Influencer, told The Media Leader. “TikTok is a vital platform for millions and this decision ignores that reality. Expect the next few days to unfold like the Silicon Valley Bank crisis, where a ‘white knight’ will step in to challenge this overreach.”
He added that TikTok “will not be silenced” in the long term by the ruling: “It’s here to stay.”
Late attempts to delay
A postponement to the ban looks increasingly possible even following the supreme court’s decision and TikTok going dark on Sunday, as both Trump and a group of Democratic senators have expressed last-minute desires to delay the ban, if not scrap it altogether.
Lobbyists from TikTok have ratcheted up pressure on lawmakers in recent days, pushing for a deferment.
TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew is attending Trump’s inauguration ceremony as a guest of honour and will sit atop the dais alongside fellow Big Tech CEOs Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk. Trump’s incoming national security advisor Mike Waltz has said Trump will “put measures in place” to stop the ban from occurring when he assumes office.
Media industry analysts have been divided on the relative likelihood of the ban. Ian Whittaker noted that the Trump administration had options to delay the ban, while Madison and Wall analyst Brian Wieser suggested it “seems to us more likely than not” a ban eventually goes through, even with a delay, given TikTok’s purported reluctance to sell the business.
Dan Perry, head of digital planning at Stagwell agency Goodstuff Communications, told The Media Leader: “Time doesn’t appear to be on TikTok’s side, but they clearly have the support of the incoming president, so it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see any ban overturned fairly quickly.”
The ban as passed by the previous US congress and signed into law by Biden gave the president the authority to grant a one-time 90-day extension, as long as “significant progress” had been made towards divestment.
However, China has not signalled public interest in divesting from TikTok, despite rumours of a potential sale to X owner Elon Musk last week. Chinese officials have called such reports “pure fiction”.
Meanwhile, a group of Democratic legislators earlier this week drafted a new one-sentence-long bill that would extend the ban deadline by an additional 270 days to allow Congress to, in the words of Senator Ed Markey, “fully assess the implications of this ban”.
Markey said: “The TikTok ban was rushed through without sufficient consideration of the profound consequences it would have on the 170m Americans who use the platform.”
However, a vote on the bill was blocked by Republicans.
Creators diversify as platforms jockey for advantage
Were the ban to stick, the knock-on effects would extend beyond the US.
Thomas Walters, founder and Europe CEO of marketing agency Billion Dollar Boy, previously warned in conversation with The Media Leader that a US ban would “undoubtedly” impact UK creators, particularly “macro-influencers whose large following may extend beyond the UK to US audiences too”.
“A ban could mean losing valuable engagement, which could impact the scale of future brand deals,” he said.
Over the past several months, TikTok creators have responded by seeking to diversify their audience reach across multiple platforms, using the likes of Instagram Reels, YouTube Shorts and Snapchat’s Spotlight as a hedge against a ban.
Snap has leaned in, launching an ad campaign in the US this week urging users to “find your favourites on Snap” as more creators move to the platform. Spotlight, Snapchat’s TikTok alternative, has grown its audience by 21% year on year, as reported in Snap’s Q3 earnings, and now reaches 500m monthly active users.
Influencer Marketing Trade Body director-general Scott Guthrie has previously stated that total influencer marketing budgets is unlikely change in response to a ban, but rather ad dollars would follow audiences across the diaspora, namely to YouTube’s Shorts and Instagram’s Reels.
Perry added that influencers and social planners in the UK would be “prudent to be prepared” for the UK to consider following the US’s lead in banning TikTok “given our shared national security concerns”.
Testing nascent alternatives?
Meanwhile, less established competitors have received notable interest within the past week by users fleeing TikTok.
Chinese platform Xiaohongshu (also known as RedNote) and ByteDance-owned Lemon8 both jumped to the top of app stores in the US and the UK, with many users seemingly downloading the apps out of spite over the TikTok ban.
It is unclear whether creators are intending on establishing a long-term presence on the apps, especially in the case of Xiaohongshu, where most users do not post in English. But Americans’ sudden embrace of that app reportedly alarmed Chinese censors over the potential influx of exposure to Western culture.
Other TikTok alternatives could come from the likes of billionaire Mark Cuban, who has publicly expressed interest in bankrolling a decentralised TikTok alternative built on Bluesky’s open source AT Protocol.
Perry believes that, should the ban be fully enforced, advertisers should look to stay nimble and consider a host of platforms for media spend.
“The likelihood is that big players like Meta will profit, but with social time fragmented across more platforms than ever, it presents an opportunity for us to look more broadly,” he explained. “Reddit, for example, had a stellar 2024, growing to over 29m unique users in the UK.
“We’ll also continue supporting nascent partners — whilst much smaller in terms of scale, the likes of WeAre8 are on a noble mission to deliver a more positive social experience and have a solid media offering to boot.
“We shouldn’t be limited to social, though. High-quality, responsible journalism needs our support and can exceed the levels of attention we see in social, so the likes of Ozone, Picnic and Azerion are well-placed to deliver a similar ad experience.”
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