Total worldwide advertising is expected to rise by just 0.5% to $642.8 billion this year, with the UK forecast to see 0.1% growth this year and next, according to a new forecast from Magna.
Magna now expects US advertising in 2008 to decline 3.2% to $270.8 billion, with a fall of 4.5% expected next year.
In 2009, US advertising is expected as a percent of GDP to drop to 1.78% which is close to the low of 1.71% during the energy shortage of the 1974/1975 recession.
Advertising growth in many of the smaller countries in recent years was often better than in many neighbouring larger developed countries, but now many are experiencing slowdowns, said Magna.
It added that the exceptional growth in advertising in other countries from emerging parts of the world is still above average, but the expansion in consumer marketing and advertising is not as explosive as in the past.
| 2009 Ad Outlook In Key Industrialised Countries (Percentage Change Over Prior Year In Normal Currencies) |
| |
|
Forecast |
| Country |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
| Japan |
1.0% |
-2.0% |
-4.0% |
| Germany |
5.7% |
2.6% |
1.0% |
| United Kingdom |
4.1% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
| France |
1.5% |
0.5% |
1.3% |
| Italy |
5.1% |
0.6% |
0.3% |
| Spain |
5.5% |
-4.3% |
-1.3% |
| Canada |
5.5% |
3.2% |
3.8% |
| Mexico |
22.0% |
12.0% |
12.0% |
| Australia |
4.6% |
3.0% |
2.0% |
| Netherlands |
7.8% |
8.0% |
-5.0% |
| Source: Magna |
GroupM recently forecast that global advertising spending in measured media would fall 0.2% to $458 billion in 2009 (see Global ad spend to fall 0.2% in 2009).
The projected decline is the first retreat in global advertising since the 3% fall recorded in 2001 after 2000’s dotcom-driven ad growth of 15%, said GroupM.
ZenithOptimedia, meanwhile, also forecast that global ad spend would decline 0.2% overall in 2009 (see ZenithOptimedia forecasts no growth in global adspend in 2009).
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