Global advertising is set to grow by 2.9% in 2003, as an upswing that began in the latter half of this year continues into the next. This forecast will be delivered to a UBS Warburg media conference in New York today by Zenith Optimedia chief executive John Perriss, according to reports.
Zenith says that it is television that is leading the ad industry out of its two-year decline, with the US networks showing signs of some healthy improvement in revenue. US advertising is forecast to grow by 1.9% next year, after an expected 1.3% growth for the full year 2002.
Print media are showing less healthy figures and may have to wait until the latter half of 2003 and into 2004 before their revenues start to show positive growth, according to Zenith.
Long, slow recovery The prognosis is for a long, slow emergence from the decline, rather than a rapid recovery. However, Zenith believes that we are now at the bottom of the recessionary period and that the only way from here is up. In September the group forecast that the top seven advertising markets would see a decline of 1.4% in constant currency during 2002. Of this, the US was expected to drop by 0.1% and the UK by 1.2%.
Globally, Zenith is now expecting 2002 to be more or less flat on 2001; this is slightly better than expected and so 2003 year on year growth figures have been reduced accordingly. Europe is forecast to remain in decline this year, at -1.1%, whilst 2003 should show a 2.5% increase.
The UK is expected to outperform Europe as a whole next year, with growth of 2.1%. In the UK, television airtime sales at ITV have seen some improvement in the final quarter of the year, but December has dipped once again and visibility remains poor into the beginning of next year (see Carlton And Granada Hit By Downgrade).
Forecast comparisons By way of comparison, ABN AMRO is predicting a global decline of 0.4% in spend this year, followed by 2.2% growth in 2003 (see ABN AMRO Forecasts Gradual Ad Growth In 2003, Rising In 2004). Within this, North America is expected to show growth of 0.5% and 2.2% in 2002 and 2003 respectively; the UK is forecast to show 0.2% and 3.0% growth and Europe -1.7% and 2.0% on the same basis.
Global Insight, meanwhile, forecasts a US growth of 6.0% in 2003 (see US Advertising Market To Grow By 6% In 2003, Says Report), whilst Merrill Lynch reckons it will be 4.0% after a 0.7% rise in 2002 (see Advertising Prospects Falter, Says Merrill Lynch).
