The country by country breakdown of Zenith Media’s latest set of global advertising forecasts shows an optimistic outlook for the European ad market going into 2002.
Global continental forecasts, published on MediaTel Insight yesterday (see
Global Advertising Forecasts From Zenith Offer Some Hope To Industry), show that whilst in constant prices growth next year will still be negative, a growth in gross revenue totals (current prices) indicates that the “ingredients for advertising recovery [are] becoming visible,” according to Zenith.
In Europe Zenith expects a -2.1% growth in 2001, followed by a 1.7% improvement in 2002. For the UK it predicts a drop of 4.0% this year and 0.7% growth next year. The revised totals for 2001 and 2002, across all the major regions, are -3.4% and 0.8% respectively.
| Zenith Media and ABN Amro ad growth forecasts |
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2001 |
2002 |
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| |
Zenith Old |
Zenith New |
ABN Amro |
Zenith Old |
Zenith New |
ABN Amro |
Difference (Zenith against ABN) |
| North America |
-4.2 |
-5.7 |
-8.2 |
0.1 |
-1.3 |
-2.7 |
-1.4 |
| France |
0.8 |
-3.2 |
-3.8 |
3.6 |
-0.5 |
-2.3 |
-1.8 |
| Germany |
-4.0 |
-5.5 |
-6.3 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
-0.3 |
-2.2 |
| Italy |
3.1 |
-1.1 |
-3.5 |
5.2 |
1.9 |
0.1 |
-1.8 |
| Spain |
-1.8 |
-6.2 |
-11.1 |
1.8 |
-0.4 |
-2.5 |
-2.1 |
| UK |
-3.0 |
-4.0 |
-6.1 |
2.0 |
0.7 |
-1.1 |
-1.8 |
| Europe |
-1.8 |
-2.1 |
-4.6 |
2.7 |
1.7 |
-0.9 |
-2.6 |
| Japan |
1.5 |
-0.9 |
-1.0 |
0.7 |
0.0 |
-3.6 |
-3.6 |
| Asia Pacific |
3.4 |
-1.0 |
-2.9 |
5.2 |
2.0 |
-0.6 |
-2.6 |
| Latin America |
5.4 |
-1.9 |
0.0 |
9.7 |
4.4 |
0.7 |
-3.7 |
| TOTAL |
-1.6 |
-3.4 |
-5.3 |
2.0 |
0.8 |
-1.9 |
-2.7 |
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| Source: Zenith Media, ABN Amro, 12/01 |
These forecasts are much more optimistic than the equivalent figures from ABN Amro, with every Zenith prediction showing a higher growth (or lesser decline) than ABN’s. Analysts at the broker have taken issue with Zenith’s 2001 figures, particularly the US, UK, Italy and Spain forecasts. ABN notes that McCann-Erickson’s Bob Coen has predicted a decline for major media of -8.1% this year.
On the 2002 forecasts, ABN believes that H2 will have to show a particularly strong performance in Europe if Zenith’s 1.7% growth figure is to be met. Given that H2 this year is expected to be down 8% (compared to -3.8% in H1), the run in to H1 2002 is going to be tough, with difficult comparables, say analysts.
