The country by country breakdown of Zenith Media’s latest set of global advertising forecasts shows an optimistic outlook for the European ad market going into 2002.
In Europe Zenith expects a -2.1% growth in 2001, followed by a 1.7% improvement in 2002. For the UK it predicts a drop of 4.0% this year and 0.7% growth next year. The revised totals for 2001 and 2002, across all the major regions, are -3.4% and 0.8% respectively.
Zenith Media and ABN Amro ad growth forecasts | |||||||
2001 | 2002 | ||||||
Zenith Old | Zenith New | ABN Amro | Zenith Old | Zenith New | ABN Amro | Difference (Zenith against ABN) | |
North America | -4.2 | -5.7 | -8.2 | 0.1 | -1.3 | -2.7 | -1.4 |
France | 0.8 | -3.2 | -3.8 | 3.6 | -0.5 | -2.3 | -1.8 |
Germany | -4.0 | -5.5 | -6.3 | 2.0 | 1.9 | -0.3 | -2.2 |
Italy | 3.1 | -1.1 | -3.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.1 | -1.8 |
Spain | -1.8 | -6.2 | -11.1 | 1.8 | -0.4 | -2.5 | -2.1 |
UK | -3.0 | -4.0 | -6.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | -1.1 | -1.8 |
Europe | -1.8 | -2.1 | -4.6 | 2.7 | 1.7 | -0.9 | -2.6 |
Japan | 1.5 | -0.9 | -1.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | -3.6 | -3.6 |
Asia Pacific | 3.4 | -1.0 | -2.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | -0.6 | -2.6 |
Latin America | 5.4 | -1.9 | 0.0 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 0.7 | -3.7 |
TOTAL | -1.6 | -3.4 | -5.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | -1.9 | -2.7 |
Source: Zenith Media, ABN Amro, 12/01 |
These forecasts are much more optimistic than the equivalent figures from ABN Amro, with every Zenith prediction showing a higher growth (or lesser decline) than ABN’s. Analysts at the broker have taken issue with Zenith’s 2001 figures, particularly the US, UK, Italy and Spain forecasts. ABN notes that McCann-Erickson’s Bob Coen has predicted a decline for major media of -8.1% this year.
On the 2002 forecasts, ABN believes that H2 will have to show a particularly strong performance in Europe if Zenith’s 1.7% growth figure is to be met. Given that H2 this year is expected to be down 8% (compared to -3.8% in H1), the run in to H1 2002 is going to be tough, with difficult comparables, say analysts.