Today’s Independent carries predictions for 1996 from the media industry. Among those from the television world, Michael Grade, chief executive of C4 predicts legislation to provide for the abolition of the Funding Formula, and “lots of great British films because of C4 investment”. Will Wyatt, managing director of BBC TV predicts more homes will switch to satellite and cable, but terrestrial channels will continue to enjoy 60% share of viewing in those homes and BBC2 will increase its audience share.
Ward Thomas, chairman of Yorkshire Tyne Tees Television predicts 1996 will be “a year of consolidation in the ITV sector…we will be left with two or three big groupings, not necessarily Granada, MAI and Carlton.”
Press predictions seem to expect a turbulent year for 1996; Tony Rennell, executive editor of the Sunday Times sees there being a “middle market scrap as the Mail group tries to see off the Express”. He also expects Saturday issues to come into their own, even contemplating that the Guardian drops the Observer to concentrate on its Saturday edition. Question marks also hang over the Daily Star and Independent.
Jim Seaton, editor of the Scotsman predicted that the price war will go on into 1996 “I can’t see that battle being resolved: the companies are all posting big profit reductions. The Telegraph and Associated are all down. The Times is being subsidized by Murdoch’s TV interests. The Independent is losing money. I don’t think it is doing any of us any good.”
Jeremy Deedes, editorial director of the Daily Telegraph predicts lots of movement in editorial terms amongst the national press, with 6 new editors appointed recently, and says the Express may revive under its new editor Richard Addis. David Montgomery of the Mirror Group says “1996 will be a year of dramatic change”. Newsprint costs will continue to be high as a share of overall costs leading to further pressure to increase cover prices.
James Walker, media research director of JWT says they are forecasting that display advertising expenditure for 1996 will be up by 8.3% compared to 7% growth for 1995. The fastest growing medium will be radio, up 20%, whilst national newspapers will increase at a slower rate, up 5.9%.
