The rise of mobile advertising and social media, and the transition to programmatic buying of digital display, will help the global advertising market grow 5-6% a year, over the next three years, according to ZenithOptimedia’s latest advertising expenditure forecasts.
Next year global adspend will increase 4.9% to reach $545 billion; however, advertising is expected to face a tough year-on-year comparison after the Winter Olympics, World Cup and US mid-term elections which took place in 2014.
With the Summer Olympics, US Presidential elections and the UEFA European Football Championship, ZenithOptimedia predicts growth of 5.6% in 2016, before slipping back to 5.2% the following year in their absence.
Mobile, by some distance, is the main driver of growth, and is forecast to account for 51% of all new advertising dollars between 2014 and 2017. The report predicts mobile advertising to grow by an average of 38% a year in that period, driven by the rapid spread of devices, innovation in ad tech and improvements in user experience.
However, mobile’s share of adspend remains far behind its share of media consumption.
While accounting for 6.2% of all adspend in the US this year, eMarketer estimates it will occupy 23.3% of media consumption time – partly due to the fact that a large amount of conventional display advertising does not work well on mobile.
According to the forecast, the transition to programmatic has given a “sharp boost” to traditional display, as well as video and social.
Growth in traditional display leapt from 14% in 2012 to 18% in 2013, with ZenithOptimedia estimating 26% this year – its fastest rate of growth since 2007.
“Mobile technology is creating new opportunities for brands to build relationships with consumers, while programmatic buying is making brand communication cheaper and more effective,” said Steve King, CEO of ZenithOptimedia.
“Social media provides a strong example of how to advertise effectively on mobile platforms, and we expect mobile marketing to develop further as other media learn from this example.”
MediaTel subscribers can access aggregated forecast trends for the UK from AA/WARC, Carat, eMarketer, GroupM and ZenithOptimedia from Media Landscape
