The US presidential election and Brexit vote have had little impact on advertising budgets, according to GroupM’s latest ad forecast; however, Zenith, which has also released its latest ad forecast today, is predicting a slowdown in UK growth over the next few years.
Global adspend is expected to grow 4.4% in 2017 to $547 billion, according to GroupM – with digital’s share likely to reach 33%.
While digital will account for 77 cents per dollar – up from 72 cents per dollar in 2016 – TV will receive 17 cents per dollar compared with 21 cents last year.
In the UK, GroupM forecasts adspend to grow at an annual run-rate of 7% to deliver a prospective $3 billion incremental investment over 2016 and 2017. This compares to $3.3 billion from the rest of the EU combined.
Zenith’s latest figures, however – which also forecast 4.4% global growth – expect Brexit to weaken growth in the UK over the next few years.
UK adspend is forecast to increase 5% this year – down from 9.2% in 2015 – with 3-4% growth expected through to 2019.
According to Zenith, global advertising expenditure in social media will grow 72% between 2016 and 2019, rising from US$29 billion to US$50 billion.
Social media advertising will account for 20% of all internet advertising in 2019, up from 16% in 2016.
With 20% year on year growth each year, by 2019 social media advertising is expected to be just 1% smaller than newspaper advertising (US$50.2 billion for social media compared to US$50.7 billion for newspapers).
By 2020, Zenith says social media will be comfortably ahead.
