Media Revenue & Inflation Forecasts From Optimedia
In its latest media economy forecasts, Optimedia predicts that UK advertising will see an upturn in Q3 2002 and boldly forecasts that a decline of 2% in overall growth in 2001 will be followed by a 2% increase in 2002.
Television UK television has suffered badly this year, particularly ITV. Again Optimedia believes that the upturn will happen in Q3 2002 and, although revenues will remain low until September, spending will not be significantly down on 2001. Following a ‘successful final quarter’ Optimedia estimates that total revenue for the year will grow by 3% compared to 2001.
Although revenue will continue to grow in 2003/2004, it is not forecast to reach 2000 levels until 2005.
Radio As with television, Optimedia forecasts heavy losses for the radio sector this year. Unlike television, however, there is no upturn forecast for radio in 2002 which will be another “difficult year” for radio according to Optimedia.National Newspapers Growth of 1% is forecast for national newspapers in 2002 although this figure will rise slower over the next few years than it was doing prior to 2001, newspapers enjoyed 13% growth in 2000Regional Newspapers Regional newspapers are one of the few media sectors forecast to sustain advertising growth in 2001 although the rate of growth has fallen considerably compared to 2000. Two factors are blamed for this, one is the general slowdown in the economy – Optimedia cites the supermarket and car sectors in particular – coupled with the trend amongst advertisers of shifting classified money online.Magazines Growth for all magazines (business and consumer) will be 3% in 2001 but Optimedia forecasts that 2002 will be a tougher year for magazines and just 1% growth is anticipatedOutdoor A major dotcom beneficiary, outdoor is expected to have a bad 2001. Although 2001 is forecast to see a decline in revenue of 3%, Optimedia says that 2001 can be seen as a “settle-back” period from the highs of 2000.
Although spending will not reach 2000 levels for some time, Optimedia forecasts that outdoor will enjoy strong growth in coming years.
Cinema In contrast to the difficult climate which has troubled other sectors, 2001 is forecast to be a strong year for cinema advertising. Several high grossing films have driven cinema audiences to record levels and ad revenue is forecast to reach £152 million.
Optimedia speculates that TV spending, particularly in the motor and drinks sectors, has been shifted to cinema and that continued growth and investment within the medium will lead to further growth in coming years.
Internet Online spending has suffered particularly badly in 2001 yet the medium nonetheless managed to achieve impressive growth of 20% in 2001.
It would clearly have been impossible for internet advertising to sustain the level of growth achieved last year, 122%, although steady growth is forecast for the next few years, peaking at 45% in 2002.
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