RAB Forecasts Listening Growth Through Digital Radio
The Radio Advertising Bureau has forecast a massive upturn in radio listening hours thanks to the growing popularity of digital stations, but has warned that the new technology also brings dangers to conventional programming and advertising.
Speaking at a seminar entitled The 21st Century Radio Listener today, Michael O’Brien, client services director at the RAB, predicted that total listening hours would rise by 10% within the next five years.
He said: “Radio has been growing over the last ten years, television has been flat and newspapers have been in decline for a while. We are confident that we will see an extra 10% growth in listening hours driven by digital radio.”
However, O’Brien presented his audience of industry officials with a double-edged sword, pointing out several pitfalls. Using quotes from several high-profile broadcasting figures he explained that listeners had more choice, not only over the type of radio they listen to, but also over the times they choose to listen thanks to PVR-style digital radio recorders.
Among those commenting through O’Brien’s presentation was Phil Riley, chief executive at Chrysalis Radio, who explained that the power of existing brands needed to be carried over to digital radio in order to maximise on brand power. He said: “I think the analogue brands will still continue to dominate in the digital world. It will be the services that don’t have the benefit of a brand in the real world which are going to have to work hardest.”
Jenny Abramsky, head of radio at the BBC, also contributed to the debate via video, drawing attention to the various implications of listeners time shifting broadcasts using PVR-style digital radios.
She explained: “The first implication for radio programming is that people will no longer consume that programming at the time that it was originally broadcast. To understand that it won’t necessarily be heard within the cradle of a schedule and will actually be heard as a stand alone programme is something that I think is very important for programming.”
O’Brien stated that, while time shifting had implications for all broadcasters, the BBC should be particularly aware of the situation. He said: “Potentially there is a fundamental change that programming directors will have to think of. More important for the BBC than for commercial stations because commercial radio tends to be more about the programming, rather than the programmes. Commercial radio is your friend, you listen to it and its that attitude that you like throughout your day. However, with the listener having more control that might mean that the programming directors of commercial stations need to rethink the way they programme.”
Speaking at the same seminar, Andy Tilley, a partner at The Ingram Partnership, highlighted the effect such listener choice could have on radio advertising. He said: “I think you have to think about different ways of advertising. If you just stick to doing 30-second ads you are going to become lost in this new environment. There has been a lot of discussion about sponsorship and promotions. If you consider the ways that could be approached there are plenty of opportunities, such as advertiser led programming as we have seen on television.”
He added: “I think if we consign ourselves to just looking at conventional advertising spots we will loose the beauty and opportunity that the digital environment offers. I think its about working with it rather than applying old conventions to a new approach.”
The predictions made by the RAB follow similar findings published earlier this year by the Digital Radio Development Bureau. In a study of digital radio equipped households the DRDB revealed that listeners tune in to programming for 11.9 hours per week more than analogue listeners.
The study also found that 62% of digital listeners claimed to watch less television as a consequence while 37% of listeners actively change their favourite station upon purchasing a digital radio, demonstrating the value of extra choice offered by DAB radios (see Digital Radio Listeners Tune In For Longer).
RAB: 020 7306 2500 www.rab.co.uk
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