ZenithOptimedia: No growth in global ad spend next year
Global ad spend is expected to decline 0.2% overall in 2009, while developing markets will still grow but at a slower rate than previously forecast, according to ZenithOptimedia’s new report.
The report predicts that developing markets, such as Asia Pacific and Central & Eastern Europe, will largely counterbalance the decline in North America and Western Europe’s ad spend next year.
ZenithOptimedia has reduced its overall forecast for ad spend growth in 2009 from 4.0% to -0.2% due to the recent financial crisis, which began in Q3 2008 and accelerated in Q4.
“The fallout from the financial crisis has spread throughout the real economies of the developed world. Consumer and corporate confidence has been severely shaken, and the economic outlook is uncertain,” the report said.
ZenithOptimedia now expects ad spend to decline by 5.7% in North America in 2009 and by 1.0% in Western Europe, which is significantly lower than its previous forecast that was published just two months ago.
In the UK alone, ZenithOptimedia has cut £427 million off its earlier forecasts, predicting that the total ad market in the UK will be worth £12.8 billion in 2009.
However, ZenithOptimedia expects a recovery to kick-in by next summer: “The global ad market will be very tough in Q1 2009, and Q2 is unlikely to be much better. But we expect mild recovery to begin in Q3, a year after the start of the downturn, and pick up in Q4 when the year-on-year comparatives will start to get a lot easier,” the report said.
The report also made some positive forecasts, predicting that over the course of 2010 global ad spend will grow 5.5%, followed by 5.8% growth in 2011.
In terms of individual mediums, online seems to of reaped the benefits of the overall downturn – “Internet advertising continues to grow rapidly as advertisers turn to it for its innovation and accountability,” said ZenithOptimedia.
The report predicts that online ad spend will grow by 18% in 2009, including 18% growth in North America and 12% in Western Europe.
Online advertising is also expected to take a 15.6% share of global ad spend in 2011, according to ZenithOptimedia.
“The other media we expect to undergo substantial growth in 2009 are cinema and outdoor,” said the report. “Television is also doing relatively well in the downturn.”
| Share of total adspend by medium 2007-2011 (%) | |||||
| 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | |
| Newspapers | 27.1 | 25.4 | 23.8 | 22.3 | 21.2 |
| Magazines | 12.0 | 11.5 | 11.2 | 10.7 | 10.4 |
| Television | 37.3 | 38.0 | 38.3 | 38.5 | 38.5 |
| Radio | 8.0 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 6.7 |
| Cinema | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Outdoor | 6.5 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 7.1 |
| Internet | 8.6 | 10.3 | 12.1 | 13.9 | 15.6 |
ZenithOptimedia: www.zenithoptimedia.com