Gloomy Predictions For Newspapers – Zenith

Zenith Media has published its latest Advertising Expenditure Forecasts. Globally, adspend in print, TV, radio, cinema and outdoor is forecast to be $261 billion in 1995, up by 7.3% on 1994. 1995 is expected to be the high point of growth between now and 1998.

In terms of the UK, the economic mood is nervous; exports are slipping, growth is decelerating, and consumption growth is slow; these disappointments have led Zenith to take off £150m, or 1.5% from their July forecast of total 1995 adspend, with mono advertising in newspapers the main loser.

The worst news of the forecast is for newspapers, with a prediction for a fall in circulations as newspaper cover prices return to normal. The cover price war achieved little in advertising terms; rising availability of colour space means inflation in this sector will end sooner rather than later; the drop in circulations will mean newspapers will take a 37% share of the market in 1998, Zenith’s lowest forecast to date for the sector.

The news is less gloomy for television, with growth continuing to run slightlyahead of the general media market; Channel 5 which launches in January 1997 is expected to win market share for the sector.

Ad expenditure in £ million at current prices.

Source: Zenith (0171 244 8500)