Mobile device sales to grow 9% globally in 2010
According to analyst firm, Gartner, the mobile device market is expected to see an upturn in fortunes next year, with a forecasted sales increase of 9% year on year, compared to 2009.
The growth is expected to be driven by three elements, according to Gartner:
- replacement cycles returning to normal within two years
- more aggressively priced smartphones
- shorter contracts
In addition, as consumers begin to feel less macro-economic pressure, it expects second-hand sales in emerging markets as well as global SIM-only sales to stabilise in 2010 and to begin decreasing from 2011.
The combination of these elements is expected to help increase total yearly sales to 1.322 billion units in 2010.
Speaking about the forecast growth, Carolina Milanesi, research director at Gartner, warned: “Despite a projected return to growth in 2010, the times of 20% growth are certainly over as mature markets are saturated and most growth will come from emerging markets.
“Pressure will remain for manufacturers to sustain and grow margins as ASP continues to decline. Software, services and content will be much bigger drivers than hardware, pushing traditional mobile phone vendors to reinvent themselves to remain at the top of their game.”
Sales figures for 2009 have also been re-estimated. September’s forecast of a decline in sales of 3.7% has been replaced by one of just 0.67% from 2008. This is due to stronger than expected sales in Western Europe and an acceleration in the grey market in Q3 2009.
Garner also predicts that smartphone volumes will represent 14% of total mobile device sales in 2009, growing by 23.6% from 2008, and will reach 38% by 2013.