ABN Amro Downgrades Global Ad Forecasts

Media analyst group ABN Amro has downgraded its global ad forecasts following a “weaker than expected start to 2001”. Estimates for global advertising growth, which had previously stood at 3.4%, have now been reduced to just 1.3%.

Amro cites weaknesses in the telecoms and technology markets, shifts in media mix by FMCG companies and the current dichotomy between ad growth and GDP as indicators that this may not just be a bad cycle we are witnessing. However they also echo many other analysts’ and media companies’ ‘defence’ that ad growth in 2000 rose to inflated and unrealistic highs fuelled by the dotcom boom, the Olympics, Euro 2000 and the US presidential elections.

Looking to the future, Amro believes that a growth rate of 6.4% is possible, although optimistic, and anticipates that a “slow recovery” is more likely with base growth rate estimates for 2002 at 4.5%.

ABN AMRO: 020 7678 7277

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