Commercial radio under threat, warns Enders founder
Enders Analysis founder Claire Enders warned the industry that commercial radio in its current form could disappear within the next 15 years.
Speaking at the MediaGuardian Changing Media Summit yesterday, Enders said a combination of arduous radio regulations and the ways in which media consumption habits are changing poses a risk for the future of commercial radio.
“Radio is being dwarfed by classified, online display, search and the next generation don’t believe in it as much,” she said.
Enders warned that the prospects facing the future of the medium are being damaged by a lack of revenue, though she conceded that radio consumption currently remains relatively high.
However, Absolute radio chief operating officer Clive Dickens dismissed Enders’ future forecast for radio – he believes that some commercial stations are struggling, but only due to the recession.
“The challenge is to move away from display as advertisers are looking for better return on investment,” Dickens said.
He confirmed that Absolute is looking at new and innovative ways to increase revenue, such as using premium text-based competitions and tapping into subscription revenue.
In the latest RAJAR release, for the fourth quarter of 2008, All Commercial radio enjoyed a year on year increase in weekly reach, although its average hours per listener figures were down over the same period (see Weekly reach increase for commercial radio).
All Commercial radio’s weekly reach now stands at 31.2 million listeners following a year on year rise of 1.6%.
All Local Commercial radio was also up year on year, by 2%, taking its reach to 25.1 million, while All National Commercial remained relatively static year on year, at 13.6 million, despite a 2% dip period on period.
| Q4 2008 RAJAR Weekly Reach (000s) Comparisons | |||||||
| Ending Dec 07 | Ending Mar 08 | Ending Jun 08 | Ending Sep 08 | Ending Dec 08 | YoY % Change Dec 07 vs Dec 08 | QoQ % Change Sep 08 vs Dec 08 | |
| All BBC | 33,139 | 34,219 | 33,323 | 32,981 | 33,520 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| All BBC Network Radio | 29,234 | 30,282 | 29,611 | 29,331 | 29,923 | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| BBC Local/Regional | 9,818 | 10,293 | 9,504 | 9,296 | 9,471 | -3.5 | 1.9 |
| All Commercial | 30,716 | 31,019 | 30,984 | 31,180 | 31,210 | 1.6 | 0.1 |
| All National Commercial | 13,655 | 14,126 | 13,760 | 13,936 | 13,640 | -0.1 | -2.1 |
| All Local Commercial (National TSA) | 24,606 | 24,847 | 24,992 | 25,125 | 25,110 | 2.0 | -0.1 |
| Other Listening | 3,022 | 3,035 | 2,978 | 3,073 | 3,147 | 4.1 | 2.4 |
However, there was a relatively large fall for All National Commercial’s average hours figure, down by 6% to around eight hours, although it was static period on period.
Listeners are now tuning in to All Local Commercial radio for an average of 12.7 hours following a year on year fall of 1.6%.
| Q4 2008 RAJAR Average Hours Per Listener Comparisons | |||||||
| Ending Dec 07 | Ending Mar 08 | Ending Jun 08 | Ending Sep 08 | Ending Dec 08 | YoY % Change Dec 07 vs Dec 08 | QoQ % Change Sep 08 vs Dec 08 | |
| All BBC | 17.0 | 17.2 | 16.9 | 16.7 | 16.8 | -1.2 | 0.6 |
| All BBC Network Radio | 15.8 | 16.0 | 15.8 | 15.6 | 15.7 | -0.6 | 0.6 |
| BBC Local/Regional | 10.4 | 9.9 | 10.2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | -4.8 | -2.0 |
| All Commercial | 14.0 | 13.7 | 13.9 | 13.9 | 13.7 | -2.1 | -1.4 |
| All National Commercial | 8.4 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 7.9 | -6.0 | 0.0 |
| All Local Commercial (National TSA) | 12.9 | 12.6 | 12.7 | 12.8 | 12.7 | -1.6 | -0.8 |
| Other Listening | 7.4 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 6.9 | -6.8 | 1.5 |