Convergence And PVRs To Kill Off Traditional Schedules
Convergence was one of the key words at the IPA’s Measuring Media In The Future conference held in London earlier this week, as a series of speakers attempted to paint a picture of the media, the media industry and the key issues for the next ten years.
Nigel Whalley, managing partner at Decipher, set the tone with some thought-provoking statistics and examples of convergence and its effects on consumer and brands. More and more, he emphasised, the TV would take on the role of computer as PVRs gained share and programmes were played back from hard disc, whilst the PC plus broadband enabled TV pictures to be available; mobile phones sold on (sports) video accessibility; and video on demand offered any programme or film at any time.
Programme schedules would have less meaning as these new technologies steadily each gained share, so that by 2010 Decipher predicted about 35% of viewing would be to “My TV” (still mostly made up of TV programmes, but with some video on demand as well).
The future would see the death of the programme schedule, said Sue Elms, director of Carat Insight. Already Sky’s electronic programme puide (EPG) is the seventh most “viewed” channel on Sky, and could become a profitable advertising revenue generator in the future when restrictions are lifted.
It all amounted to a very creative world for the TV industry, but a potential nightmare for media measurement. “The next BARB debate will make the previous one pale into insignificance,” Whalley anticipated.
The PVR was at the core of much of the debate. Only 23 homes on the BARB panel have PVRs currently, but Whalley said this will increase to 10% of the panel in 3 to 4 years. “BARB cannot measure it,” he confirmed. Technically there is little doubt it will be possible to measure it, but the unanswered question was whether the industry would consider this financially worthwhile for just 10% of the audience.
Viewing habits of TiVo and Sky Plus users are quite different to each other, and to normal TV viewers, early studies were showing. Of those with TiVos (described as more technical and early-adopters) 80% of their viewing was from the TiVo only. Sky Plus is appealing to the less technical, “normal” TV viewers and only 50% of their viewing was from Sky Plus. Indeed many Sky Plus subscribers were only making use of the basic video techniques, with 40% of recorded programming viewed within an hour.
To emphasise the convergence debate, speakers reported that 4 million now watch video over the BBC website daily and that the BBC listen-again service on the web pulls in an extra 370,000 listeners per week to the Archers.
Whalley mused further over brand choice. “Who do I go to for my football highlights on my mobile phone, Vodafone or Sky? Which brand would I back?” He anticipated another tier to the Sky subscription offering in the future, to take in football content over mobile devices. The regulators may yet have something to say on that one!
IPA: 020 7235 7020 www.ipa.co.uk
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