Insight Analysis: TV Industry Looks To The Future
UK television is currently undergoing fundamental change as it is forced to react to the advance of technology and twenty-first century viewing habits. Predicting the future is no easy task but a new report has outlined some of the challenges faced by the industry and speculates on how the broadcasting landscape will look in the next decade.
Future Reflections: Four Scenarios For Television In 2012 was a project developed by the Bournemouth Media School with research support from the ITC and the British Screen Advisory Council. Over a twelve month period, twenty-seven senior media executives and opinion formers met to discuss the prospects for the television industry.
Initially, the panellists were asked to pinpoint particular areas of uncertainty and a number of concerns were highlighted including media consumption, the analogue switch-off, funding, the role of the BBC and the potential of the internet. Subsequently, four realistic scenarios were drawn up envisaging different economic climates and varying levels of digital and broadband take-up. These formed the basis of a discussion at the Future Reflections Seminar held in London last week.
Scenario 1: Digital World
A period of sustained economic growth has galvanised consumer confidence and we now live in an ‘all digital’ environment where everyone has digital TV and the majority has a broadband connection. Competition is driven by market forces and four or five commercial players satisfy the demands of a more enlightened and wealthy society. The BBC has retained its public service broadcasting status but its influence is much diminished while Channel 4 has been privatised and is now part of a global media organisation.
Scenario 2: Back to Basics
International tensions have led to a prolonged recession and increasing social unrest. The public is cautious and people are either unwilling or unable to participate in the digital/broadband world. As a result, the Government was forced to abandon its plans to turn off the analogue signal in 2010. Commercial television revenues have not recovered and conventional network channels continue to account for a large share of TV consumption. The BBC and BSkyB are the dominant market movers and Channel 4 has abandoned its commercial ventures and now recieves a top slice of the licence fee.
Scenario 3: Goodbye TV
In this moderate economic growth scenario, the media market has become fragmented and destabilised and new media has taken over from conventional television. Broadband has expanded faster than digital TV and the Government has been forced to intervene and pay consumers to switch from analogue. TV revenues, consumption and programme quality have fallen sharply as people prefer to surf the broadband internet for news and entertainment. Commercial broadcasters are struggling and the BBC is in the process of winding down its TV channels in order to concentrate on its online and radio services.
Scenario 4: Global Challenge
The UK has recovered after a period of economic uncertainty and the Government is seeking to encourage consumer confidence. Television remains an important advertising medium and spending is on the up again. After a slow start, take-up of digital TV has soared to 80% and interactive services are considered a profitable source of revenue. Four major networks are now competing for viewers and despite the fact that the commercial channels are owned by foreign corporations, regulations and the strong UK production sector ensure that there is a generous quota of home-grown programming. The BBC remains a prominent player while Channel 4 has been privatised and is about to be sold to a global media network.
Conclusions
The report accepts that it is unlikely that any one of these scenarios will come to fruition. However, a combination of events is feasible and there is value in pre-empting developments that could affect the television industry. For instance, the state of the economy and changing consumer attitudes will affect the take-up of new technologies and government policy and increasing globalisation will directly influence media ownership in the UK.
No-one can predict with any confidence what the television industry will look like in ten years time. However, by analysing potential situations, media companies and policy makers can draw up strategies that are sufficiently flexible to deal with an uncertain future.
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