ITV Will See 7% Audience Share Fall By End Of Decade, Says Report
ITV’s audience share will fall 7% by the end of the decade, according to the latest forecasts from ABN AMRO. The drop in audience share from 1999’s figure of 31.7% to the predicted 24% in 2010 would be caused by increasing numbers of multi-channel homes and, in particular, digital television.
“The key advantage of the switch to digital transmission is compression,” says the ABN AMRO report. “Capacity is no longer a constraint and new channels and services have been, and will continue to be, introduced. This will result in the established channels losing share.”
The forecast, which works on an estimated analogue switch-off date of 2010, shows that the two leading terrestrial channels, BBC1 and ITV, would see the largest migration of audience to the new choice of channels. The report points out that in analogue and satellite homes, ITV viewing is already around 35% lower than in terrestrial homes, while in digital satellite homes, where the lack of a carriage deal between ITV and Sky Digital is apparent (see ITV Slips While Non-Terrestrials Improve In Digital Television Homes), ITV’s viewing share is just 19.6%. BBC2 and Channel 4, already established as more specialist channels of the kind multi-channel television should provide more of, are both expected to see similar, less-marked, declines of a couple of percentage points each, rather than 7 or more.
Channel 5, currently the Cinderella of terrestrial broadcasting, should have its day as the only terrestrial not to suffer from the onslaught of digital TV services, at least in the short term. In fact, the digital switchover will improve the channel’s current UK coverage of 80%, automatically accessing a larger potential audience. The ABN AMRO report also points to Channel 5’s tactics of using high profile sports events and movies to persuade people to try out the channel, which have so far proved successful in gaining audience share. As a growing channel, Channel 5 is also expected to increase its coverage and be able to invest more in programming in years to come (see From Big Brother To Big Sales Houses, Channel 5 Prepares For Battle).
ABN AMRO say that both the success of Sky Digital and ITV’s absence from its Electronic Programme Guide (EPG) have helped accelerate the decline in ITV audiences. An increasingly competitive environment, which may include the increasingly successful Channel 5 and a rejuvenated BBC could, along with multi-channel offerings, further challenge ITV’s audience appeal.
That said, the leading commercial terrestrial channel is expected to hold onto its power during peak time. “We expect the fall in ITV’s share of peak-time viewing to be less pronounced, falling from 38.8% in 1999 to 30.5% in 2010,” says the report. “It will remain the key media for providing mass audiences.”
ABN AMRO: 020 7678 0280
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