Mixed messages for adpsend in 2009

GroupM’s latest bi-annual ‘This Year, Next Year’ report forecasts an 11.2% decline in UK adspend in 2009 (see GroupM forecasts 11.2% fall in UK adspend in 2009), compared to an overall global decline of 4.4%.

However, online is expected to enjoy more growth this year, despite the overall advertising downturn.

Earlier this week, the IAB reported 17.1% growth in online adspend in 2008 to £3.4 billion, bucking the general downward trend of the ad market, which saw overall adspend fall by 3.5% to £17.5 billion last year, according to the IAB (see UK online adspend grew 17.1% in 2008).

The latest bi-annual study from the IAB and PricewaterhouseCoopers shows that internet managed to grow its share to 19.2% of total UK advertising expenditure in 2008 – up 3.7 percentage points on 2007, making the UK is now the world’s most advanced market for internet advertising in terms of share of voice.

Online publishers predict this to continue in 2009 – with 63% of online publishers expecting to increase their digital investment this year, according to the AOP (see Online publishers predict 16% growth in digital revenues).

The AOP Census 2009 found that online publishers predict 16% growth in digital revenues from online advertising, subscriptions, paid content, eCommerce, sponsorship and commercial content in 2009.

However, Enders Analysis’ research, which was published earlier this week, contradicts this – Enders revised forecast for internet advertising is “zero growth” in 2009 – “with a low single digit rise in paid search offset by falls in display and classified”.