Planning for Christmas chaos
A third of us predict a winter lockdown – so how do media agencies plan for a turkey of a Christmas? Simon Carr, chief strategy officer, Hearts & Science shares his thoughts
Are we facing a second winter of discontent? It’s certainly looking bleak as the cooler winds of autumn arrive with news of rising fuel bills, food shortages, tax increases, supply chain chaos, empty petrol pumps and persistent Covid cases.
Indeed, despite some cautious optimism for a normal Christmas, a study earlier this month from YouGov shows that a third of the population (36%) believes there will, once again, be Covid-19 restrictions in place for the festive period.
This may or may not come to pass, but at the very least it’s looking unlikely the UK’s supply chain woes will be resolved in time for Christmas.
To that end, it is surely only the most wildly optimistic marketer who would plan ahead in the belief it will be business as usual.
For everyone else, it’s worth looking at how flexible and adaptive our media plans will need to be should any of the worst-case scenarios occur.
Unpredictable consumer trends
Ordinarily, the winter is the UK’s busiest shopping period. But in 2021 and early 2022, many typical consumer behavioural trends that agencies plan for are likely to be disrupted, with some perhaps changing for good.
For example, the pandemic has been financially difficult for many people, and rising fuel costs and taxes will exacerbate this, so there will be a sizeable cohort unable to spend much this Christmas.
Conversely, there are others who have spent less and saved more over the last 18 months, and now have a larger Christmas budget to splash.
Meanwhile, various studies, including our latest Forces of Change report, show that many people want to emerge from the pandemic with more sustainable shopping behaviours – signalling a potential trend towards experiential, hand-made or locally sourced gifts.
And it’s not just what we spend our cash on that might change – the timings for when we do so are likely to be different this year, as concerns about supply chains force people to plan and shop far earlier than usual.
Indeed, eBay reported in August that two fifths (41%) of its users said they’ll have finished their Christmas shopping before December, compared with 25% last year.
This amounts to a strange feast of unpredictable and new consumer trends, which could make advertising schedules more challenging for many businesses.
The long-range model is currently out of order
Given the ongoing disruption, there will be plenty of nervous brands, that have spent the summer months planning and filming big ticket Christmas TV ads. When they finally land, it will be a fascinating showcase of how our creative sector has handled such uncertainty.
However, TV creative and production risks could be mitigated through technology – for instance virtual production stages created with Unreal Engine are helping to cut time and costs.
The purely strategic workaround to this risk however, is to look to other brand building channels. In particular, radio and out-of-home give good visibility at a lower cost and, crucially, require far shorter production times.
This would certainly lower the risk of misjudging a creative message if the mood of the nation should change overnight, and strategically prepares a brand to act dynamically.
Social-commerce is on the rise
Another alternative, which has seen impressive results for brands, is using a social-commerce or affiliate marketing platform such as TikTok or Instagram.
Although I’m reluctant to say there will be a wholesale pivot to social media or influencers, the rise in brands using TikTok in particular is a signal that the big TV ad is under threat – and with Pret securing 1.5 billion views for its 2020 Christmas campaign, you can understand the hype.
However, there is also the consideration of audience, and TikTok and Instagram are dominated by the youngest cohorts. This means there needs to be a balanced movement into emerging channels in combination with those that have been proven in the past.
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Even outside the current era of uncertainty, this is always a sensible approach and I advocate media plans having a certain level of innovation and new channel testing baked into them (as opposed to setting aside X% of total budget, which is too easy to cut). But it is essential this is accompanied by a clear testing and measurement framework.
Short-term models still pose risks
There’s no doubt that online and performance channels will play a significant role this Christmas as e-commerce has achieved five years worth of organic growth within 12 months, starting at 19% of total retail at the start of 2020, and peaking at 36% at the start of 2021.
They are also easy channels to tweak or turn off should supply chain issues force a rethink in media strategy. But they come with other risks under the current market conditions.
For example, the move for so many retailers to embrace e-commerce following the first lockdown was a business imperative, and for many it has paid dividends. However, it has also seen competition for online audiences skyrocket, particularly on Facebook and Google.
The risk to brands in the run-up to Christmas, therefore, is a lack of visibility online, alongside inflated CPAs and diminished conversion rates.
This means media planners must truly understand audiences as the competition for them intensifies; going deep into the culture of our clients’ categories and combining fast moving behavioural data with attitudinal data. Crucially, we must also unpick the motivations that sit beneath it all.
Up and downstream strategic implications
It’s always vital a strategist understands how their clients make their money, but given the UK’s current challenges, I would add into this upstream view an understanding of how clients’ supply chains actually work.
For example, John Lewis announced this month that it is acquiring extra boats to ensure Christmas isn’t disrupted, but this becomes an important consideration for product availability and thus media spend.
Media plans should therefore consider real-world delivery logistics and have the flexibility to change.
For some clients, this may even mean a plan more closely attuned to the wider business, and not just the marketing department – so be prepared to learn something new and potentially complex, and plan resources accordingly.
But take faith that, as an industry, we’re already adept at doing this.
Just look at how first-party data was dynamically fed into media formats for Specsavers, showing same-day eye test availability through digital OOH ads while social distancing restrictions limited supply.
Meanwhile, the downstream view – which includes all executional elements – means understanding the changing nature of behaviour and matching that to channel choices.
For example, taking a lower reliance on big, fixed elements and a higher reliance on more flexible, culturally relevant assets.
And flexibility is the crux of it all. No one really knows what will happen in the run-up to Christmas, but the best we can do is plan for adaption and ensure our strategies take surprises for granted.
Who knows, perhaps more than simply being a challenge to overcome, it might even present a real opportunity for those who do it best.