Social Media Futures
Sarah Robinson, digital media & technology account director at Future Foundation, gives us some insights into how social media is developing …
As reported at MediaTel’s recent seminar, The Future of Online, social networking sites are booming. Global ad spend in 2008 will be $2 billion, a 55% growth on last year. In the UK, the most popular site, Facebook currently has 15.4 million PC users and another 1.5 m mobile users. What recession?
The Future Foundation, consumer think tank and strategic consultancy, recently ‘future proofed’ its collection – the Central Scenario – of socio-economic and consumer trends to test the validity and sustainability of ‘consumer life as we know it’ during a prolonged recession. The trends that emerged unscathed were the sub group of technology trends and also those related to social networks (on and off line, for example trends of The Networked Family, Fluid Identities and Collective Individualism). These are the trends that can therefore be considered recession-proof and as such explain the continued growth of online social networking.
The very term ‘social media insights’ feels something of a paradox, even now as we look beyond Web 2.0 to the next generation and beyond. Yes, social network sites and digital media owners have impressive software yielding pin point accurate profiles of their users and a brand can target a 35 year old man in Hassocks who enjoys knitting (particularly useful if you own a craft shop in Sussex).
Yet still many brands are struggling with understanding and demonstrating how consumers interact with social media. What entices them to pass messages on, to read peer reviews, make a contribution, open marketing messages and ultimately act on them?
The Future Foundation has devised a research programme to answer these questions that, pending sufficient interest, will be launched at the start of 2009 and completed within six months.
However, as we always tell our clients, the best way to anticipate the future is to understand the present and the past, so here are ten existing insights.
1. 16-34 year olds continue to dominate the online social media landscape however older age groups are catching up. In July 2006 just 3% of 35-54 year olds had created a social networking profile, by July 2008 this was up to 12%. The 55+ age group is currently sitting around 3% and with the continued popularity of sites such as Sagazone combined with the changing demography of the UK population simply ageing, we expect this figure to rise.
2. Instant Messaging is gaining popularity as a form of communication. In 2004 10% of the population overall used IM, in 2008 this had shot up to 24%, with 46% of 16-34 year olds using IM. From 2004 – 2007 IM was significantly more popular with internet users of higher social grades but by 2008 all social grades were at level pegging.
3. In 2007, 26% of 16-34 year olds agreed with the statement “I would not be able to maintain my social life without access to the Internet.”
4. Gender differences prevail online. 19% of men surveyed last year said that they “expect to spend more and more of my entertainment time with people I will never or rarely meet face to face” compared to 11% of women (national average is 15%).
5. Of respondents who have used a social networking site, 75% have got back in touch with old friends.
6. More people are worried about the security risks of shopping via the Internet this year than last – 56% in 2008 up from 39% in 2007. Concern is highest (64%) amongst 55-64 year olds, the age group, lest we forget, with more spare time and disposable income and healthier, more active lifestyles than any previous generation.
7. Of 55-64 year olds, 35% in 2008 agree with the statement, “I consider myself to be a very experienced and confident user of the Internet”. 80% of 16-34 year olds agree with the same statement.
8. In 2008, 23% of all consumers accessed the Internet via mobile devices, rising to 53% of 15-24 year olds and falling to 4% of 65+.
9. Research commissioned by Microsoft and conducted by the Future Foundation in 2008 revealed a level of emotional transparency online that does not exist offline. 45% of men aged 16 – 35 said that the Internet has helped them to reach a deeper level of intimacy with another person.
10. Results of the same survey for Microsoft showed that 65% of 16 – 35 year olds know someone who is in, or has had, a relationship with someone they met online.
So, ten things we do know and the tip of the iceberg of what we don’t yet know about consumers’ online activities, identities and interplay with each other, with media platforms, with brands.
The Social Media Futures research programme due to kick off in January 2009 will address these questions through a range of quantitative and qualitative, online and offline methodologies, including measuring and exploring participants’ ‘egonets’ (ecosystems of online and offline personal networks).
If you would like to find out more details regarding this research please contact me at sarahr@futurefoundation.net