Timescan – A Look At The Future Of Television In The UK

Abbott Mead Vickers have published a report into the future of television and how it will be affected by new broadcast technology for the coming decade.

Predictions made by the report include:

– Whilst there will be an increase in the growth of multi-channel homes by the year 2005, the number is unlikely to be more than the ‘average number of viewers that tune into a decent episode of Coronation Street’

– The ability to reach television viewers ‘en masse’ will not be lost. – The focus of advertisers’ attentions will be at the margins ie. how to reach lighter viewers, the eclectic, ‘minority’ tastes and the upmarket.

– Assuming that the viewing behavior of multi-channel households in 2005 will be little different to those of 1994, then the projection over a decade is that satellite/cable’s share of total viewing will increase to about 15% from the 1994 figure of 7%.

– As more viewers in multi-channel homes watch ITV and BBC1 than viewers in non multi-channel homes it is predicted that Channel 4 and BBC2 will lose out most, in terms of share of viewers.

– The likelihood of revenue increasing in a straight line rather than bursts of contraction and expansion is negligible.

An estimate of landmark points in revenue predicted over the next decade are as follows:

– The main conclusion reached by Timescan is that advances in technology will not occur so quickly that they outpace the ability of advertising agencies to respond to them.