Total Adspend Will Rise By 5% In 2000

Revised forecasts by CIA MediaLab for 2000 set the rise in total adspend at 5%, 1% higher than previously expected. Media inflation, however, will remain unchanged at 3.7%, with a 0.5% increase in audience.

The highest year-on-year change for advertising expenditure will come from online ads, which the group predicts will rise by 106% to a total yearly spend of £95 million. Radio is a distant second in terms of growth, with year-on-year change in radio adspend predicted to be 12%; this would put its total spend for the year at £507 million.

Audiences for classified and national press ads are predicted to decline in 2000 as the debate between the effect of the internet on these sectors continues to rage. Online companies will boost national newspaper display adspend but their growing influence will effect circulation, which is forecast to decline by 3%. National press classified will continue to be pressured by the development of online recruitment sites and a lack of expansion in the area.

Commercial television audiences will be boosted as the great digital set-top box giveaway continues and the new multi-channel homes increase their viewing of commercial channels. One victim of this increase, however, will be ITV which, excluding GMTV, is predicted to take less than 60% of TV revenue for the first time in 2000. Its decline in revenue is also the result of an increased share of terrestrial taken by Channel 5.

Remaining static but healthy are the regional press sectors, consumer mags and outdoor markets: regional press will be further affected by mergers next year but will increase steadily in line with inflation; consumer magazines will also remain healthily stable, with a year-on-year increase in ad revenue of 4%; the outdoor market is predicted to show a 5% growth in 2000.

CIA MediaLab: 0171 803 2000