UK adspend forecast to fall 8.7% in 2009

UK ad spending will fall 8.7% this year, with global spend predicted to shrink by 6.9%, according to a new forecast from ZenithOptimedia.

Zenith is currently forecasting 1.5% growth in global adspend in 2010, followed by 4.5% growth in 2011, although these forecasts will be revised when new information arises, it said.

Adspend is forecast to fall 8.3% in North America in 2009, with the US down 8.7% and Canada remaining stable with 0.2% growth.

In Western Europe, all the major markets are suffering substantial decline, said Zenith. In 2009 it forecasts a 7.3% decline in France, 5.5% in Germany, 5% in Italy and 10.1% in Spain.

However, all the major markets are expected to grow in 2010, with the exception of Italy, predicted to shrink another 0.8%.

Asia Pacific is expected to drop by 3.4% in 2009. However, there are several large markets still growing, said Zenith: China is forecast to grow 4.5%, down from 18.8% last year, with India up 6.4% and Indonesia up 7.9%.

In Latin America, overall adspend is forecast to shrink 2% this year, with a return to strong 7% growth in 2010.

The internet is the only medium Zenith expects to attract higher spend this year, due to its accountability and innovation in ad formats.

Online is forecast to grow 8.6% in 2009, down from 20.9% in 2008, with most of the growth coming from search advertising.

It is expected to pick up again in 2010, growing 11.3%, with growth of 15.3% to follow in 2011.

Television ad expenditure is forecast to fall 5.5% in 2009, although this represents an increase in market share from 38.1% to 38.6%, followed by a record 39.3% share in 2010.

Last month, GroupM forecast that UK advertising spending would fall 11.2% in 2009, with global spending predicted to drop 4.4% to $425 billion.

Also in March, Carat forecast that UK adspend would fall 7.1% this year, with worldwide spend falling 5.8%.