UK adspend forecast to grow 5.4% in 2016

Carat has forecast a positive outlook for the global advertising market in 2016 and 2017 – with the post-Brexit UK market still looking strong.

Global adspend is expected to grow 4.4% this year to reach US$548.2 billion, boosted by high-interest media events including the UEFA Euro championship, the Rio 2016 Olympics and Paralympics, and the upcoming US presidential elections.

Despite a slight moderation following the EU Referendum, the UK continues to be the largest advertising market in Western Europe, with positive growth of 5.4% expected in 2016 – exceeding the average rate of 2.9%. However, this is down from the 6.2% previously forecast.

Particularly robust growth is expected in Latin America (10%), Russia (6.2%) and North America (5%), countering lower expectations in other markets.

Growth will continue into 2017, increasing by 4% to US$570.4 billion.

Digital continues to be the leading driver of growth and is forecast to increase by 15.6% in 2016 and 13.6% in 2017. Digital media spend is expected to account for 27.7% of total global media spend in 2016 and 30.2% in 2017.

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TV continues to hold the highest share of total media spend (41.1%). While it is expected to grow by 2.3% in 2017, Carat forecasts a lower predicted share of spend at 40.3%.

In line with expectations, print advertising spend is forecast to continue to decline by -5.5% in 2016 and by -4.3% next year.

Excluding print, Carat’s forecasts reconfirm year-on-year growth for all other media in 2016, with cinema up 4.5%, radio up 2.4% and out-of-home up 3.5% – with predictions revised down slightly for 2017.

“As the digital economy brings complexity, speed of change and disruption, it is only through digital that brands can build engagement and remain relevant to their audiences on a fully addressable and real-time basis,” said Jerry Buhlmann, CEO of Dentsu Aegis Network.

“In a world where connectivity and convergence are now the norm, mobile, social and online video lead the rapid growth of digital investments. With more flexible, targeted and data-led media solutions, mobile, social and video are driving the demand for richer and more powerful consumer engagements, in the right place, at the right time.”