US ad revenue forecasts on the up

As new forecasts come out today from ZenithOptimedia and Magna, the forecasters continue to edge their predictions upwards.

Magna only considers the US market but is now expecting 2.8% growth in 2010, compared with 2.1% forecast in mid-July. The latest increase comes on the back of 3.3% growth in quarter 2 and expected 3.5% in the third quarter, according to Magna today, with TV (up 13.4% in qtr 2 and online, up 14.4% leading the way). It is noted that online’s growth in digital display and online video/rich media was a major contributor.

Magna’s figures exclude political and Olympic advertising on TV.

ZenithOptimedia is slightly less bullish about the USA at 2.2% for this year – but this is double a prediction made three months ago. “Most of the large financial, retail and automotive spenders have returned to the market in the US.”

A surprising additional comment is ZenithOptimedia’s note that 68 new magazines launched in the USA in July alone, as magazine readership enjoys increased levels. One in the eye for press doom-mongers?

Search is still the driving force behind internet growth – ZenithOptimedia forecasts its worldwide share of internet revenue to grow to 51.4% in 2012 (49.2% in 2009). Display will be stuck around 33%.

In the US where social media and mobile are “best measured”, ZenithOptimedia sees significant growth between 2009-2012 – mobile advertising at 44.3% a year, social media at 31.2% annually (compared to the internet as a whole at 14.6%). This would take mobile and social to 8% of US advertising by 2012 (5% in 2009).

For 2011, Magna forecasts USA growth at 3.1% on a normalised basis, with an average of 3.6% across 2010-2015. ZenithOptimedia believes 2.4% is more likely in 2011, rising to 2.9% in 2012.