We need a monument of hope in the age of the Shard
Neil Sharman, head of research and analysis, Telegraph Media Group, says that in tough times ad-land needs a monument of hope. He unveils the kind of statue he has in mind…
The Shard towers over London, a lean, tapering, thrust to the sky. It’s magnificent but it’s not kind. The contrast with the Gherkin couldn’t be starker. The Gherkin, built in 2003, before the financial crisis, is plump and jolly – a monument to a time of plenty. The Shard tells the story of the new world but there’s optimism missing in its sharp narrative.
In these dark days the future is uncertain and we need a monument to inspire hope. After the ’87 crash, New York adopted a statue of a raging bull to represent financial hope but I propose that London, not least ad-land, needs a statue of slightly balding man in his late fifties. He doesn’t need to look aggressive or triumphant or even saintly, he could just look a bit, well, like someone’s dad.
He is your hope. The country is feeling the pinch of the financial crisis and things are set to get worse. But we are not all feeling the pinch equally, we are not all in it together as the government tell us. There is a wealth gap opening up in the country and it’s not between north and south or the franchised and the underclass; it’s between the generations. Your baby boomer parents have all the money and for them, the party isn’t over.
This is a story of luck. The baby boomers were born in a post-war world. They were expected to be the generation that fought the Russians but they ended up riding a wave of good fortune and they sucked up all the wealth. Nobody could imagine the extent to which the babies of the fifties would have it so good.
“Average Baby Boomer” is the title I’m giving my proposed statue, or “Brian”, to give him a name. He bought his first house for a ninth of the price his average son paid this year for his average property. His son is in negative equity, having only just got rid of his student debt but “Brian” has made a mint from property. His present mortgage has practically gone but he is one of the baby boomers who bought a second home recently because his son’s generation couldn’t get the credit to benefit from falling house prices. He and his wife are busy furnishing it.
Brian was once a bright lad who got himself a good job as an accountant, at a time when there was more social mobility. Bristol University research shows that, on average, accountants of Brian’s generation were born to parents who had average incomes. Those taking up accountancy jobs in later generations had parents whose incomes were 40% higher than the national average. Social mobility is part of the baby boomer success story.
Brian has climbed the tree as the years have gone by and he’s at a level in his company that means his wage has increased by over 25% in ten years. For those lower down the tree, like his son, wages have barely kept pace with inflation.
When he retires he has a final salary pension, the level of which was worked out by someone expecting Brian to live no longer than seven years after retirement but, he’ll keep going until his late eighties, spending most of that time active and spending. No such luck for the rest of us, a PWC survey found recently that 94% of major employers intend either to reduce or axe current defined benefit provision
I mentioned that Brian’s an accountant but he’s also the bank manager of the fastest growing bank in the UK, the bank of mum and dad. According to research from Sainsbury’s Life Insurance, parents in the UK have forked out a staggering £34 billion in loans and financial gifts in the last year alone. This includes those who received a total of £8.4 billion for mortgage or rental deposits or payments, £3.5 billion for home improvements and £2.2 billion to pay off debts.
Deloitte says household incomes are at their lowest since 1955 and Mervyn King says we face the biggest downturn either since the thirties or perhaps it will be the worst yet. None of us have experienced anything like this but it is Brian’s money that will make our world keep turning.
He represents hope. His statue might not be as attractive looking as the figure of someone in the 25-44 age groups but he is cast in gold. He is the opportunity now for advertisers brave enough to think beyond their traditional targets. For many advertisers who target 25-44s, a significant amount of their existing customers are 45+ anyway but they are often left un-targeted. Times have changed. When the young could get credit, it was easier to ignore this large, rich group of people but that was in Gherkin time, not the age of the Shard.
As part of the Telegraph Works programme we’re visiting advertising agencies on a roadshow, bringing an exhibition showing just how the Telegraph works. As part of the day advertising director, Nick Hewat is doing a couple of talks in which he discusses Brian along with characters representing younger generations. It’s compelling stuff and if that roadshow comes to your agency do go along. He makes a thought provoking case and, you never know, if he convinces you, you might just join my campaign for ad-land’s new monument to hope.
Your Comments
Despite giving himself a youthful title, Paper Boy is absolutely a case in point. He is over 45 and, I think I’m right in saying, a Baby Boomer. His rate of earnings in the last ten years was way ahead of inflation and whilst some of that is in the bank, we’d assume, a lot gets spent on a life, if not exactly of Brian, then certainly of Riley. The holidays (matching luggage, of course) the cars, the bars, the suits, the hair care and grooming products and the technology – all aimed at a younger group who are increasingly struggling to make ends meet.
The reports of my demise have been greatly exaggerated (apologies to Mark Twain). The fact is, I am yet to reach that golden NRS age cohort of 45-54. And yes, these may be the ones keeping our GDP above water (growth 0.2%). However, it’s questionable whether this altruistic consumerism exists amongst an older age group that are straddled with being the ‘Bank of Mum and Dad’. The last time I looked the average age of a Sun reader was early 40s, so the Daily Telegraph’s must be mid or late 50s with 65% of their readership over 55. Another two decades and I may well be reading Simon Heffer… if he outlives me.
OK to answer your questions. Firstly, the situation is different now to 1992 in three important ways: this recession is worse, of course, so the Bank of England thinks. Secondly the wealth gap between the generations has got a lot lot greater as David Willetts describes in his brilliant book, The Pinch. To illustrate this with a stat from The Pinch, in the early 90’s 10pc of first time buyers borrowed money from the bank of Mum and Dad for their deposit. Nowadays that figure has risen to an amazing 80pc. The Baby Boomers are a far more economically controlling group than those that went before. Finally the Boomers are so plentiful in number they are harder to ignore than other generations when they passed 44. In 1992 the youngest of them were 27 so their greater number favoured those seeking younger audiences. Now it favours those prepared to fish in a bluer (and wealthier) ocean.
But to your point about whether older groups are spending. To that I’d say just look at TGI, at the percentage of a brands users who are over 44. In most cases, it’s a significant number. They’re spending already. Add to that the Ehrenburg point of view that advertisements should target all that brands users not just niche groups (‘niche groups’, they say, includes age bands like 25-44). Target your frequent and infrequent users in order to increase mental availability and increase the amount of times your brand is chosen by category shoppers. The Ehrenburg Bass Institute say this is fundamental to How Brands Grow (another good book). My point is, if Brian and his generation of Baby Boomers are already buying your brand, don’t forget to keep reminding them to come back as you might plan to do with those who are younger. They are plentiful and they have the wealth in a way we have never seen before, for all our years in the business.
PS mind you, Paperboy – one thing is the same as it was in 1992. Simon Heffer writes for the Daily Mail.
As always Neil makes some really valid points and very eloquently.
Its great to note the references to The Pinch and the academic studies of Ehrenberg on brand building.
I agree (as we are all experiencing) that the current recession is far worse than 1992. If advertisers are persuaded to target 45-54’s with more advertising money this is good news for all national newspapers who provide great reach of this age group.
P.S. I haven’t read the Daily Telegraph and Daily Mail for sometime and forgot the September news item about Heffer returning to the Mail to edit the online comment section ‘RightMinds’ (sorry Ed)
P.P.S. Hefer might well be back at the Telegraph in twenty years as he decides where is he real spiritual home is but in the meatime I can still read his archive articles on Telegraph online
P.P.P.S……..and can someone tell the Telegraph online biographers that Simon Heffer has moved on
This endeavour to persuade the advertising community to target the older demographic appears every recession. Back in 1992 (the last recession) Express Newspapers (with an equally “age-challenged” demographic) provided a research study and armed its sales team with 35mm slide projector presentations (remember those… all very costly!) extolling the same arguments as The Telegraph‘s ‘Life of Brian’ proposition.
Targeting the GLAMS, Greys or whatever new acronym describes the over 50’s has been knocking around forever with the argument that they are the one demographic with the disposable income to spend on products and services and advertisers should target them accordingly.
The problem always is that there is a real question whether they do actually spend or lock their money away in the latest five year NS&I inflation busting savings scheme.
Moreover, creative agencies do not construct artwork accordingly (who wants to aspire to something that reminds them of their mortality) and media agencies believe that the early adopter’s are mainly found in younger age groups.
Anyway, here is a picture of ‘Brian’s’ shopping in an Apple store… to be seen in a Telegraph presentation coming to your offices soon!