Your Media Predictions For The Year Ahead…

The turn of the millennium sees the media industry, for the most part, undergoing a series of mergers and consolidations as companies seek to strengthen their positions in the face of increasing media fragmentation. Much change has been wrought by the emergence of the internet and much has been made of its continued effect on traditional media in the coming years.

We asked a range of those of you who work in various areas of the industry to offer some predictions on what the next year or so might hold for the media world. Here is a selection of those wise forecasts and their authors.

• “My prediction for year 2000 is the increasing acceptance of the huge role that the mobile phone will play in the next few years. From the position of convenient fashion accessory, the mobile phone will become an essential electronic wallet performing the vital roles of bank, digital radio and television receiver and internet access provider, as well as local information provider. Trust me! It’s gonna happen.”
  Matthew Wilson, EMAP On Air
• “In the web world cost per thousand will be referred to as cost per impression (its true definition) and cost per thousand will enter the language as a calculation of one site’s effectiveness against another.”Richard Holman, managing director, New Media Marketing & Sales
• “Internet-related advertisers will leap to the number one spending category for the year 2000.”
  Jason Carr, account manager Chrysalis Radio
• Carlton United Broadcast Merger goes ahead; two new Independent TV Sales companies floated off from ITV ownership – selling most of ITV; C4 and C5 to merge sales teams; Premier League rights Aug 2001 – May 2006 to be shared by ITV, BSkyB, BBC, NTL; over half the population to have access to the internet via work, school/education or home; C5 to get new chief executive; NTL/CWC attempt to merge with Telewest/Flextech; over 25% of all TV homes to be digital by November.David Cuff, broadcast director Initiative Media
• “The return of full service – media agencies making ads and buying production companies etcetera.”
  Malcolm Russell, media strategist Bates UK
• “Online media auctions will take off, despite some people’s head in the sand mentality.”Mark Patterson, managing director, BJK & E Media
• Several large media planning & buying companies will merge; consumer magazines will begin to get moving on the “effectiveness” issue; agency deals will increase as the number of selling points reduce; Carlton / United won’t go ahead as envisaged but there will be changes; Pearson will buy an ITV franchise; the outdoor industry will get more tacky with business breakups and a rejection of their own research.
  John Billett, Billett Consultancy
• “Media inflation to go through the roof, due to a glut of dot.com companies coming into the market.”Duncan Salmon, senior media planner BBJ Media
• “Huge growth in cross-media dealing. Sales houses forming their own “in house” media agency, with a focus on strategic solutions across their brands. A good example is EMAP, and the restructure due early this year [see EMAP Creates Dedicated ‘Community Networks’].”
  Glyn Williams, press manager Carat
• “My media prediction for the year 2000 – is that the internet boom will crash – venture capitalists will see that they are not getting a good return of their investments, that the majority of internet companies are vastly over-priced, which will result in the expected backlash.”David Leir, media executive Just Media
• “Most explosive growth will be in the internet sector, but software for barring ads will be developed so fast (Adfilter already exists) that “internet advertising” will have to be completely reinvented.”
  Andrew Ingram, account planning director Radio Advertising Bureau
• “TV viewing hours begin to show erosion due to internet usage and internet access via TV; internet and interactive TV show strong growth; continuing consolidation of ITV, cable and satellite businesses; very strong bidding against Sky for Premiership football broadcasting rights; continuing consolidation of radio service ownership.Jonathan Darby, client manager Carat
• “The government will agree to let the BBC have limited advertising on its digital services. This will most likely be in the form of limited sponsorship opportunities on a select amount of its digital programming. This will occur because the government will realise that it is impossible for the BBC to survive in the digital age without extra funding.”
  Nick Emmanuel, account executive EMAP On Air

If you have any predictions of your own, or take particular issue with any of those mentioned here, let us know at [email protected].