4.2% Increase In US Adspend Forecast For 2008
Total US measured advertising spending is projected to increase 4.2% in 2008, according to a new full-year forecast from TNS Media Intelligence.
Jon Swallen, SVP Research of TNS Media Intelligence, said: “2008 is shaping up as a year of contrasts,.
“Aside from the continued double digit growth rate of Internet display advertising, spending gains will be driven predominately by the powerful combination of Summer Olympics and record-setting levels of political advertising. Offsetting this, a weakened economy will have a dampening effect on the broader, core advertising market.”
| 2008 Total Ad Expenditures*, Growth Estimates | |
| Period | % Change v 2007 |
| First Half | 3.6% |
| Second Half 2008 | 4.7% |
| Full Year | 4.2% |
| Source: TNS Media Intelligence | |
| * Defined as all TNS MI measured media, including: Network TV; Spot TV; Cable TV; Syndication TV Hispanic Network TV; Consumer (PIB) Magazines; Sunday Magazines; Local Magazines; Hispanic Magazines; Business-to Business Magazines; Local Newspapers; National Newspapers; Hispanic Newspapers; Network Radio; Spot Radio; Local Radio; Internet; and Outdoor. | |
Internet display advertising is forecast to continue growing at double-digit rates in 2008 with spot TV, Spanish language media, outdoor and cable network TV also exceeding the overall market average, said TNS.
Consumer magazines and network TV are projected to post small gains versus 2007, while business-to-business magazines and newspapers are expected to experience outright declines in ad spending.
| 2008 Projections By Medium, (Ranked Growth Rate) | |
| % Change v 2007 | |
| Internet* | 14.4% |
| Spot TV | 9.9% |
| Spanish Language Media** | 7.8% |
| Outdoor | 5.5% |
| Cable Network TV | 5.0% |
| Consumer & Sunday Magazines*** | 3.6% |
| Network Television | 2.7% |
| Syndication TV | 1.3% |
| Radio | 0.7% |
| Business-to-Business Magazines | -0.1% |
| Newspapers*** | -0.9% |
| Source: TNS Media Intelligence | |
| *Internet estimates reflect display advertising only | |
| **Spanish Language Media includes Hispanic Network TV; Hispanic Spot TV; Hispanic Magazines; and Hispanic Newspapers | |
| ***Magazine and Newspaper estimates do not include web site advertising | |
| Share figures may not add to 100.0% due to rounding | |
“The internet will continue to gain share, principally at the expense of newspapers,” said Swallen.
“We track share of spending on a rolling two-year basis, in order to control for the biennial fluctuations associated with the Olympics and elections – events that disproportionately benefit television media. Our projections for the 2007-08 cycle indicate television and magazines will maintain their shares, while the Internet will move past radio.”
| Share of Measured Advertising Spending by Media: 2007-08 vs. 2006-07 | ||
| Media Type | 2007-08 (24 Months) | 2006-07 (24 Months) |
| Television | 44.1% | 44.0% |
| Magazines | 21.1% | 20.9% |
| Newspapers | 17.2% | 18.2% |
| Internet | 8.0% | 7.1% |
| Radio | 7.0% | 7.3% |
| Outdoor | 2.6% | 2.6% |
| Total | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Source: TNS Media Intelligence | ||
| Note: The sum of the individual media may differ from total due to rounding | ||
A report published by the Nielsen Company towards the end of December reported that US advertising spending for the first three quarters of 2007 decreased 0.1% year on year, with internet continuing to demonstrate the strongest performance (up 15.9%) of any category (see US Adspend Decreases In First Three Quarters Of 2007).
According to preliminary figures from Nielsen Monitor-Plus, in addition to internet advertising, other categories that showed an increase during the first three quarters of this year were: national magazines (7.7%), national Sunday supplements (6.0%), outdoor (5.7%) and national cable TV (1.2%).
Meanwhile, a GroupM forecast predicted that advertising spending in US measured media will show an almost 4% year on year increase in 2008.
Worldwide spending is expected to rise 7% to $479 billion in 2008 following an anticipated 6% increase in 2007 (see Worldwide Adspend Expected To Rise 7% to $479 billion In 2008).