ABC Consumer Jan-Jun 2012: Agency Views

An underwhelming set of ABC figures today with only a handful of winners in the print format. Although digital editions were up by over 2000%!

A great example of this is the ever-dwindling men’s marketplace, looking pretty dire largely fuelled by FHM, Zoo and Nuts, however if you look at the increase in digital editions within this sector for Men’s Health, GQ and Esquire, we see some pretty healthy figures.

It was a mixed bag from the monthly sector. Great news for Easy Living, a new editor and new look has paid off, well done! While at the other end of the spectrum the younger titles are not faring well at all, with the biggest decreases despite generous cover mounts – the worst being Glamour, Company, More! and Look.

Good news for IPC’s Style at Home, with an increase of over 50%, really tapping in to the cheap but chic element of home decoration. However, there were year on year decreases for some and surprisingly (for me anyway) from House Beautiful and Ideal Home.

There were steep decreases in the weekly sector, both for the traditional weeklies and celeb titles. There are just not enough interesting celeb stories to ensure even static ABC figures, with the same handful of faces on the front cover every week, all running with the same stories. I think that there will be some closures here.

On a more positive note, the increase in digital editions, iPad and mobile and the reporting of those will make for an interesting future for magazines. We need to ensure that we are speaking to our clients about all touchpoints that magazine brands can offer and not just in paper format.

Today’s ABC results make for grim reading for most publishers. Almost all of the major consumer sectors and titles have posted declines both YoY and PoP, and while there are exceptions, in general it’s clear that these are tough times for media owners in terms of copy sales.

The slip back into recession, and the apparently worsening economic climate, are unquestionably taking their toll on consumers’ disposable income, as evidenced by the continued heavy falls in newsstand sales. Of further concern will be subscription sales; this has been an area of relative stability in recent years, but today’s results are more of a mixed bag, with a number of titles posting significant declines.

However, while the headline numbers are bad, there is positive news in the form of digital editions. Titles as diverse as Cosmo, GQ, The Economist and Harpers Bazaar (along with many others) are showing significant growth in this arena. The totals are still small relative to print sales – and the value of these editions to advertisers is debatable, given that in many instances, at least 50% of the digital copies are sold outside the UK.

Nonetheless, it will be interesting to see how this develops in coming years; it’s conceivable that digital editions could do to magazine sales what iTunes did to music sales – where the immediacy, convenience and choice offered to the consumer results in more magazines being read than ever, but with the market becoming increasingly fractured, and the overall circulation of individual titles continuing to tail off.

With tablet ownership expected to continue growing at pace, the opportunity for media owners is obviously huge – and as buyers, it’s important that clients are aware that, increasingly, the headline ABC figures don’t always tell the whole story.

Today’s set of ABC’s are rather reflective of the nation as a whole.

2012 has seen the rise of the athlete and a whole new set of role models for Great Britain. Over the last six months we have seen a continued shift away from celebrity culture. No longer are people avidly tuning into Big Brother or really that interested in Jordan’s escapades. This is replicated in magazine circulations with many celeb weeklies seeing double digit drops. All hail the new clean living lifestyle and the rise of Women’s Health (debut ABC 100,000) and Slimming World (up 25% YoY). Not so good for the likes of Reveal and OK!, both down 25%.

The prolonged economic situation is still playing on people’s minds and the news-based titles are providing a robust summary (or satire) for news consumers. Both The Week (up 4.2%) and Private Eye (up 9.6%) have posted increases and The Economist remains flat.

As the nation digitalises and we switchover our TVs from analogue we find that readers are gradually consuming print in the same way. Hearst will be celebrating the two highest digital circulations for Cosmo (13,928) and Men’s Health (12,142) – both more than doubling PoP. While these are still small numbers in comparison the growth should not be dismissed as we see more and more titles launching their digital editions.

It can’t be dismissed that there are a number of titles suffering in this ABC period but the digital editions and emersion of cross platform brands are a ray of light for publishers and they need to ensure they are at the forefront of developing these.

At first look this set of figures doesn’t paint a pretty picture. However, after delving a little deeper the picture is actually more positive.

The first point to note is that the ABC’s are not a true reflection on how well the magazine brands are actually performing. The printed product is only one part of the overall magazine brand and the figures do not give the actual figure of the overall audience. With the majority of magazines now being multi-touchpoint, we will continually see the printed market decrease with the other touchpoints growing.

The main circulation declines have come from the younger adult market, with the celebrity titles and men’s weeklies been the worst hit. This generation demand constant streams of information and across a variety of platforms. For instance, although Heat magazine’s circulation has decreased to 326,677 their overall brand reach was last posted at 2.8 million – and this should increase further with the recent launch of Heat TV and Heat mobile. This demonstrates the figures reported only portray one chapter in the overall story and why it’s crucial the reporting process is in desperate need of an overhaul.

There are definite winners and losers within this ABC. Looking at market sectors it coincides with the state of the UK economy, with the luxury market defying the recession and the majority of titles relatively stable. The ‘specialist’ and ‘business and news’ sectors are also performing well, showing increases on all touchpoints.

The declines are coming from the younger end of the market and consequently Bauer and Hearst have been hit hard, with More! and Company the biggest losers.

Overall we have seen huge amounts of innovation in this period with an increase in iPad apps, mobile-optimised formats, click-to-buy apps and other brand extensions. Magazines are investing in understanding their audience and providing their magazine content in relevant and convenient platforms. Moving forward, we expect to see further declines in the celebrity and young men’s market as the young audience increasingly goes online and we will be closely monitoring how the publishers respond to this.

We will see an increase in mobile-optimised sites going forward to accommodate the massive penetration of smart-phone ownership. The next six months will also be an important time for the development of the tablet market. With the launch of the Andriod 7″ tablet, the nexus 7, as well as the up-coming launch in Q4 this year of the new iPad Mini (with a price point rumoured to be around £200), as well as the much-hyped launch of the Kindle Fire expected around October time, we expect tablet numbers to grow, which will inevitably precipitate a greater opportunity for more magazines to build editions for this format. Already we know that certain titles – e.g. GQ – are investing in the Kindle Fire, for example, by modifying their advertising specs and we expect other publishers to follow suit.

So although the headline ABC figures don’t look very positive in every sector, when analysed more closely it’s apparent that the readership habits continue to change and the overall reach of magazine brands are growing.

“ABC… easy as 1,2,3…” sang the Jackson Five but I think even Michael Jackson and his brothers would have struggled to find it easy to find too much positive news from today’s ABC figures.

While of course there are individual title success stories, they are somewhat scarce. GoodHomes and Country Homes & Interiors magazines saw healthy YoY increases in a relatively stable Home Interest market, but they appear to be in the minority.

There is much blood on the carpet when you consider that across the board, every single ‘sector’ has seen a decrease in YoY figures.

The magazine market still provides huge reach, with over 38 million copies in circulation, but the trend continues unwaiveringly downward. “I want you back” might be a more appropriate Jackson Five track, sung by many publishers to former readers.