Latest ZenithOptimedia UK ad forecasts once again revised downwards

ZenithOptimedia has downgraded its 2013 overall market growth prediction to 2.5%, after revising down every medium except cinema.

This year’s growth has also been downgraded from 2.2% to 1.6%.

After a better performance for press during the Olympics, the following months have been disappointing, with a 10% drop in October, and the forecasts now show the press market is to drop 7.3% this year.

Advertisers will spend almost £250m less on newspaper ads this year than forecast at the end of 2011 – with national newspaper advertising set to fall by £127 million from what was forecast last December and regional newspapers falling £120 million.

In total £2.33 billion will be spent on newspaper ads this year.

“The print market in the UK remains extremely volatile,” said Zenith. “Whilst many had hoped the relatively good performances of the summer months heralded some sort of recovery, this theory was quickly dispersed by the performance in September and October.”

Digital has also been hit, with its 2012 growth forecast reduced from 11% to 10.5% and 2013 reduced from 9.9% to 9.2%.

Zenith has also downgraded magazine ad spend, from a 3.2% year-on-year fall predicted in September to a 6.3% fall.

The main winners are outdoor advertising, which has been upgraded from 3.9% growth in September to 6%, and the internet, which is expected to grow 10.5% this year.

“Social media continues to grow aggressively,” Zenith said, “but we are expecting Google to overtake Facebook to become the market leader in terms of revenue.”