Deloitte analyses top media trends for 2013
The technology, media and telecommunications (TMT) practice at Deloitte this week announced its predictions for the media sector in 2013.
“Deloitte predicts that the television industry in 2013 will commence the roll-out the next generation of high definition TV, known as 4K,” said Jolyon Barker, global lead for Deloitte’s technology, media and telecommunications industry.
“offering four times the resolution of the best high definition services currently available, 4K will require new studios, initially costing close to £10 million. Consumers will require new TV sets and personal video recorders (PVRs). Sports broadcasters may be among the first to invest in 4K.”
Key predictions include:
Next generation HD 4K kicks off
Driven by demand for larger screens, clearer pictures and the migration of gaming to TV screens, 4K will initially appeal to wealthy early adopters and companies, who will choose between 20 models on sale by year end, about half of which will cost less than £6,200.
Commercial 4K broadcast and streaming services are not envisaged in 2013 and viewing will comprise pre-recorded or streamed content, dominated by movies.
The coming year will see test broadcasts and new 4K cameras, with equipment costs set to decline. One current barrier to entry is bandwidth requirements and providers should monitor advances in compression technologies. Satellite-based broadcasters should be in a good position to offer 4K, with satellite capacity growing steadily.
Mobile advertising is dead. Long live tablet and smartphone advertising
In 2013, we estimate ad revenue per smartphone at about £1.55 and that for tablets at £7.90. The differences by type of advertising reveal a wider gulf.
Display revenues, which include in-app ads, are forecast at about 35 pence per smartphone in 2013, markedly lower than that for tablets at £4.40. Differences between search revenue per device are less marked but still significant – at about £1.05 per smartphone and about £3.50 per tablet.
The progression of smartphone and tablet advertising is likely to be linked to their ability to generate e-commerce revenues. While both devices are in their relative infancy, there is a significant gap in the range of content that is readily accessible via each.
Companies should also consider how smartphone and tablet advertising is likely to link with other forms of advertising, and other ways of interacting with a company. It may be that the smartphone is the device that drives initial discovery. The tablet is then where further information is gathered, and PC or shop where the transaction takes place.
Dual video screening readies for prime time
In the 10% of mature market households expected to dual video screen in 2013 second screeners will typically watch sports events, often using headphones. Multiple cameras at sports venues will increase choice further.
Another key driver of the dual screen trend will be OTT services, offering access to premium content via the internet. Free-to-air broadcasters’ OTT offerings will also facilitate simultaneous consumption.
In many cases TV sets are already a cheaper option than laptop computers and in the medium term there may be a rise in the number of homes with more than one TV set in the same room, with video games enthusiasts likely to lead demand.
Broadcasters can provide dual screening relatively cheaply, suggesting that supply of services will expand with greater demand. Advertising-funded broadcasters and media agencies will carefully monitor the impact of new viewing patterns.
OTT may lift legacy broadcasters more than pure plays
Free-to-air TV broadcasters are likely to offer OTT for no cost, while pay TV companies include OTT access as part of subscription packages. Viewers will likely use broadcasters’ OTT services shortly after first transmission, with freshness of content key to popularity. Deloitte estimates that more than 75 per cent of programmes will be watched within a week of initial broadcast.