Global advertising spend growth is forecast to rise from 3.9% in 2013 to 5.5% in 2014, with television set to benefit in particular, according to ZenithOptimedia.
ZenithOptimedia’s new Advertising Expenditure Forecasts expect growth to increase to 5.8% in 2015 and 6.1% in 2016, driven largely by improvement in the global economy, the spread of programmatic buying and the rapid rise of mobile advertising.
Eurozone returns to growth
Since the financial crisis began in 2007, the Eurozone has suffered a 15% drop in adspend, however ZenithOptimedia forecasts Eurozone adspend to grow 0.7% this year, achieving its first year of growth since 2010.
While Finland, Italy and Greece continue to shrink, they are expected to stabilise next year, helping the Eurozone accelerate to 1.6% growth in 2015 and 1.7% growth in 2016.
Television
Television is still by some distance the dominant advertising medium and attracted 40% of spend in 2013 – almost double that of the internet (21%).
The report predicts TV adspend to grow 5.2% in 2014 – up from 4.4% in 2013 – as it gains most of the benefits of the Winter Olympics, World Cup and mid-term US elections.
Internet
Internet advertising grew 16.2% in 2013 and ZenithOptimedia forecasts an average of 16% annual growth for 2014 to 2016.
The fastest-growing sub-category is display, which is forecast to grow at 21% a year to 2016. Traditional display is growing at 16% year on year – boosted by the revolution in programmatic buying – while social media is growing at 29% year on year and online video at 23% year on year.
In 2013, it is estimated that internet display totalled $74.4 billion, while paid totalled just over $71 billion. ZenithOptimedia expects internet display advertising to overtake paid search for the first time in 2015.
Mobile
Mobile advertising is currently growing six times faster than desktop internet and ZenithOptimedia forecasts mobile advertising to grow by an average of 50% a year between 2013 and 2016 – driven by the rapid adoption of smartphones and tablets.
By contrast desktop internet advertising is expected to grow at an average of 8% a year.
Global expenditure on mobile advertising was estimated at $13.4 billion in 2013, representing 12.9% of internet expenditure and 2.7% of advertising across all media.
By 2016 this is forecast to rise to $45 billion, representing 28% of internet expenditure and 7.6% of all expenditure – meaning that mobile will leapfrog radio, magazines and outdoor to become the world’s fourth-largest medium by the end of the forecast period.
“Advertisers are gaining confidence as they world economy returns to stable growth,” said Steve King, CEO of ZenithOptimedia.
“They will find plenty of opportunities to generate strong returns on their advertising investment in the fast-growing digital media, but should remember that television has lost none of its power to reach large and engaged audiences.”
For all the latest forecast trends by medium from AA/WARC, Carat, eMarketer, GroupM and ZenithOptimedia, go to “Revenue & Forecasts“
