Carat: Global adspend to grow 4% this year

Global adspend will grow at a slightly lower rate than forecast in March at +4% this year to $529 billion and by a further +4.7% in 2016 (a $25 billion upsurge), according to Carat’s latest forecast.

Western Europe’s continued positive growth is driven by solid 2015 figures in the UK (+6.4%) and Spain (+6.9%), which has been strong enough to offset political and financial strain in Greece.

Driven by the high demand for mobile (up 51.2% year-on-year) and online video (up 22% year-on-year), especially across social, digital continues to be the only channel seeing double digital growth, predicted at +15.7% in 2015 and +14.3% in 2016.

Digital includes advertising spend from search, display, online Video, social media and mobile.

Of the 10 markets analysed, including the UK, Ireland, Canada and Australia, digital is now the principle media used based on spend, with the US expected to join by 2018, when digital adspend is also forecast to overtake TV by more than $4 billion.

Programmatic buying is also experiencing rapid growth at a rate of +20% each year, while TV remains resilient with a steady 42% market share in 2015 and is predicted to grow by more than +3% in 2016 with the arrival of the Olympics and US elections.

Despite the ongoing decline in print spend, Carat’s forecasts confirm year-on-year growth for all other media, with updated predictions for 2015 forecasting year-on-year growth in cinema at +4.7%, radio at +1.3% and outdoor at +3.4%.

“Carat’s latest advertising spend forecast shows optimism balanced with realism during a year of increased volatility in major markets such as Russia and China,” said Jerry Buhlmann, CEO of Dentsu Aegis Network.

“Noticeably, the landscape is becoming increasingly complex as previously grouped markets, such as the BRIC economies, are now operating differently and economic situations can quickly change markets at pace.”