ABN ‘Remains Cautious’ On ITV Ad Revenue Forecasts

Analysts at ABN AMRO are sticking by their forecast of a 20% drop in ad revenue at ITV in November despite popular opinion within the trade press that 15% is a more likely figure. ABN ‘remains cautious’ about ITV, but says that if the general trends within the market continue to look ‘cyclical’ there is likely to be continued support for the ITV companies.

ABN forecasts that ITV revenue will fall by 20% in November and by 24% in December whilst trade press reports estimate that revenue drops will be more like 15% for November and 18% for December.

These slightly more favourable estimates reflect a better outlook for the whole market in November and December and also a growth for ITV in market share against Channel 4. Nevertheless these percentage drops would equal £15.7m extra in revenue between Carlton and Granada.

ABN believes it is too early to herald the beginning of a recovery for ITV although if the brighter outlook materialises it will be the first time for eleven months that ITV outperforms ABN AMRO’s forecasts.

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