Does the weekly episode mark the end of binge viewing?

Strategy Leaders

Weekly shows were the norm until Netflix came along and disrupted the model. But have we now reached peak binge?

In today’s fast-paced and immediate video on demand (VOD) world, waiting a week for an episode feels very 1990s. But is it necessary when you’re making the most expensive TV show ever?

Amazon Prime’s Lord of the Rings: Rings of Power will drop weekly in the hope that one episode a week will rule them all and, in the darkness, bind them… into a Prime subscription. Scheduled to start on 2 September and run for eight weeks, the show is reported to have cost $465m for the first series.

So why show it weekly? Have we reached peak binge?
Weekly shows were the norm until Netflix came along and disrupted the model, dropping House of Cards in one fell swoop 10 years ago on 13 February 2013. Netflix is synonymous with binge viewing and has enabled viewers to watch entire series’ at their own pace as all episodes are made available at once.

This does generate water-cooler TV but it is usually an intense but short-lived moment in time. 2021’s Squid Game was Netflix’s most viewed show ever, seen by 142 million households in 28 days. FOMO, a sense of urgency and having to watch before being told spoilers, all helped generate views of the show.

But there appears to be a clear window of interest. Google searches for Squid Game in the UK go from virtually nothing in early September, multiply rapidly for three weeks with peak popularity on 3 October with interest waning by the end of that month: a six-week smash hit.

Making viewers wait each week for a specific day feels like control has shifted back to media owners as viewers cannot watch ‘on demand’ as the content drops are controlled.

HBO pushed anticipation and shock every Monday night with Game of Thrones and have continued to do this with Succession. But we’ve seen newcomer Disney+ use this strategy with Wandavision, The Mandalorian and Hawkeye dropping episodes on a weekly basis. Once a week drives anticipation of a specific shared appointment to view moment. It fuels fan conversation and theorising for the rest of the week. It also allows for better press coverage.

Search interest for HBO’s drama Succession was buoyant for nearly twice as long as Squid Game, lasting for three months. Both shows have nine episodes. Squid Game achieved higher levels of viewers and searches, but there are clear search spikes for the first and last episodes of Succession aired two months apart. The collective gasp of Succession season four’s final was almost audible as people watched the show within 24 hours across the UK and US making it a global shared experience.

The appointment to view has shifted from a local hourly moment to a global event across a day. Last night’s TV conversations have become worldwide as we share viewing. This is important for Amazon as The Rings of Power will run in 240 countries. That is a lot of conversations and press coverage all happening at once.

But global releases are usually driven by key regions. The release date of 2 September is key for the US and will enable Amazon to cross-promote Lord of The Rings a day earlier during their NFL Thursday football show.

In a huge deal, Amazon will be showing 15 exclusive regular games and one pre-season game per year for the next 11 years. They will be able to promote the Rings show during the massive Thursday game and vice-versa, reminding Americans to keep their subscription. In the UK, they may go after more sports programming to be able to cross promote content and give viewers more reasons to stay.

The key challenge for the content giants is keeping their subscribers. The Amazon video service is often seen as an add on to their shopping delivery service and not the main driver of subscriptions even though you can subscribe to video without delivery.

Kantar data shows that Amazon Prime UK took 45% of new SVOD subscribers in Q4 2021 taking subscribers to 56% of households. Sport has previously been a key factor in driving new subscribers in the UK: the “combination of Football/ Rugby/ Tennis acted as a catalyst for more than 1 in 4 new subscriptions over the quarter” in Q4 2020.

However, churn can be high as subscribers can cancel after their free first month subscription. Kantar figures show 41% of 2021 Q4 sign ups were via free trials. By dropping episodes weekly, Amazon hopes to get viewers in and keep them paying for Prime long past the trial month is over.

Experimental tactics in the streaming wars

The alternative is the blended-binge model, where a few episodes are launched at once to then pivot to weekly drops. Yesterday Peacock released Bel Air, a reboot of 90s sitcom The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air, as three episodes to binge on, followed by a weekly drop. They are looking to drive interest in the show but without committing all at once or putting their faith in the first episode gaining enough viewers who will form viewing habits. They are banking on three episodes locking people into the story.

In the UK we’ve seen other mixed models such as a blend of linear and VOD scheduling. Last year Channel 4 released It’s a Sin fully on catch up but ran episodes weekly on linear. The programme was hailed critically and was All4’s binge success with 6.5 million views on the VOD platform within a few weeks making it the most viewed show to stream on the platform. By March this had increased to 18.9 million viewers.

What we’re now seeing in this phase of “the streaming wars” is different tactics being used by content providers to experiment with shows to see which attract and keep viewers.

The platforms’ key challenge here is keeping viewers subscribing to their content. Binge-viewing isn’t going away as it’s highly unlikely that Netflix will change its model. It’s been successful as customers stay loyal for a long time with 70% of UK subscribers keeping the service for two years.

Amazon and Disney+ will continue to focus on weekly content drops.  Both strategies work. Squid Game, the all-in-one release, was the most enjoyed title of Q4 2021 followed by Disney’s Hawkeye which was weekly episodes. Amazon only had one show in the top 10 with Wheel of Time appearing at the Number Five position showing they need The Rings of Power to be a viewing mega hit.

Ultimately, the real winner here is the viewer, who gets the best of both worlds and choices over viewing. If they want to binge or watch weekly, there is abundant content across the video providers.

Eve Thompson is managing Partner at Wavemaker UK