Last year was a watershed year for the national newspaper industry, as it faced up to – and made steps towards stemming – its circulation and advertising revenue decline trend. A new forward-looking report from Billetts Media Consulting says that 2003 saw a shake-down in the sector that should produce healthier results for 2004.
Advertising revenues will be more or less flat during the year, at -1%, according to its forecasts, but the long-term decline in circulation across national newspapers will slow, from a fall of 1.3% last year to a drop of 0.9% in 2004.
The healthier prognosis is partly a result of radical innovation and change in the industry during 2003, says Billetts. The Independent‘s shift from a broadsheet to tabloid size was heralded as the most radical format change in recent times and the circulation hike that followed meant that its competitors could not help but take notice.
The Times followed suit with its own ‘compact’ edition and it is believed that the remaining qualities will not be far behind in casting off their broadsheet formats, at least in some parts of the country.
The Independent‘s circulation was down 3% in 2003, according to ABC data for January to September. Since the end of September, when the tabloid edition launched, the paper has recorded circulation increases. Billetts believes that a key factor of circulation trends during 2004 will be the impact of the new broadsheet tabloids on the mid-markets and quality broadsheets.
During 2003 only one newspaper recorded circulation increases: the Express Group’s Daily Star, which added 11% to its circulation base from January to September 2003. The biggest decline came from the Financial Times, which fell 11%, while the Daily Mirror, Daily Record, Daily Telegraph and the Times all fell by 7%. Total circulation declined by 2%.
The Sunday market was not much better, recording a decline of 1% according to ABC data to September 2003. Again it was the Express Group bucking the trend; the Sunday Express made the only significant increase across the year, up 6%.
The Observer put on 0.2% following further launches to its monthly magazine range. Observer Music Monthly and Observer Travel were added to its successful sport and food titles.
But the rest of the market recorded declining circulations across the year. The People fell 17% between January and September 2003, following extra competition from the new Daily Star Sunday. Stablemate the Sunday Mirror was down 8% and the Sunday Telegraph took the brunt of the quality decline, falling 8%.
However, overall circulation decline is heading in the right direction. In 1999 total circulation fell by 2.3%, compared to a predicted decline of 0.9% during 2004, according to Billetts.
The full version of this report is available to subscribers of MediaTel Insight.
