ZenithOptimedia revises down global ad forecast
The global ad market is forecast to decline 8.5% this year, with the UK set to suffer a 10.5% fall, according to a new forecast from ZenithOptimedia.
This global figure is revised down from its April forecast of a 6.9% decline, after Q1 came in below predictions.
China is forecast to grow 5.4% this year, overtaking the UK to become the world’s fourth-largest ad market, while India grows 7.7% and overtakes Norway, Mexico and the Netherlands to become the 14th largest.
| Advertising expenditure by region | |||||
| Major media (newspapers, magazines, television, radio cinema, outdoor, internet) US$ million, current prices. Currency conversion at 2008 average rates. | |||||
| 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | |
| North America | 188,359 | 181,333 | 162,709 | 158,797 | 161,229 |
| Western Europe | 124,991 | 123,595 | 112,223 | 112,477 | 115,374 |
| Asia Pacific | 105,070 | 108,384 | 103,013 | 107,810 | 114,561 |
| Central & Eastern Europe | 31,293 | 35,218 | 29,826 | 30,837 | 33,861 |
| Latin America | 26,511 | 30,356 | 30,405 | 32,674 | 35,269 |
| Africa/M East/ROW | 16,486 | 20,181 | 18,302 | 21,226 | 23,476 |
| World | 492,709 | 499,067 | 456,479 | 463,822 | 483,770 |
| Source: ZenithOptimedia | |||||
ZenithOptimedia expects North America to shrink a further 2.4% in 2010, after shrinking 3.7% in 2008 and 10.3% in 2009. Western Europe is expected to have a stagnant 0.2% growth rate in 2010, following a 1.1% decline in 2008 and 9.2% decline this year.
2009 is predicted to be the only year of decline for Asia Pacific, Central & Eastern Europe, and Africa/Middle East/Rest of World, while Latin America will come to a halt rather than go into reverse.
These regions will return to growth in 2010, said Zenith, followed by North America and Western Europe in 2011. In 2011 all but five markets (Finland, Greece, the Netherlands, Norway and Taiwan) are predicted to grow, while global ad recovery builds to growth of 4.3%.
Internet ad expenditure is forecast to grow 10.1% globally in 2009, ahead of its 8.6% prediction in April. By 2011 it is expected to account for 15.1% of all ad expenditure, up from 10.5% in 2008, with most of this growth coming from paid search.
The internet is the only medium expected to grow in 2009. Among the other media, television, cinema and outdoor are forecast to decline by less than the market as a whole, shrinking by 7.1%, 4.8% and 7.0% respectively.
Newspaper advertising peaked at US$131 billion in 2007 and has fallen ever since, said ZenithOptimedia. It predicts newspaper ad expenditure to shrink 14.7% in 2009 and to continue shrinking for the rest of the forecast period.
In 2011 newspaper ad expenditure is forecast to total US$101 billion, 22.7% below its 2007 peak. Magazines face an even tougher time this year, with a 16.7% decline in magazine advertising expected in 2009. However, their long-term prospects are brighter than those of newspapers – magazine advertising is predicted to return to 1.5% growth in 2011, reaching US$46 billion, 22.4% below its own 2007 peak.
At the end of June, GroupM forecast a 5.5% fall in global adspend, to $417 billion this year. However, it said that there should be a mild recovery in 2010 when the decline is expected to ease to 1.4%.