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Insight Analysis: Mixed Outlook For Old Media

Insight Analysis: Mixed Outlook For Old Media

This week, leading representatives of the UK radio, TV and outdoor markets have been reporting on their successes and failures in recent months and looking to the future with varying degrees of optimism.

On Tuesday, GWR released their full-year results which fell within expectations. Revenues from flagship station Classic FM were reported to be up by 22% and the outlook was promising “We have started the new financial year in difficult advertising market conditions. Our forward order book is traditionally short term but we are confident that when advertising expenditure increases GWR will be in a strong position to benefit” commented Henry Meakin, chairman of GWR. “The radio industry is forecast to grow faster than any other traditional medium and the Group has a strong portfolio of assets which represent real growth potential. With our new technology platforms providing greater efficiencies and with the prospects of a more liberal ownership regime, we remain confident of the future for GWR.”

This was closely followed by an optimistic AGM statement from Maiden the outdoor group who also claim to be suffering less than their press and TV counterparts in this period of economic uncertainty. In March, revenues at Maiden revealed pre-tax profits for the previous year which showed a 21% increase in revenue – at the same time, ITV revenues were expected to show negative growth of 1% in 2001. “Even with growing uncertainty in the economy and a potential reduction in growth in advertising spend, we continue to expect to be able to outperform the cycle,” commented Ron Zeghibe, chief executive of Maiden. Fortunes at Maiden and other outdoor companies are currently being boosted by the upcoming election, billboards being the medium of choice for inter-party attacks.

The outlook was not quite so bright over at Carlton on Tuesday morning when the publication of their results led to stock prices dropping 15p by lunchtime. The results showed headline profits before tax falling by 32.2% on last year although this was broadly in line with analysts predictions. The outlook for the third quarter of the year is pretty gloomy showing TV to be the most susceptible to the current decline in ad spending although Euro 2000 undoubtedly boosted ITV’s ad revenue last year as well as the much publicised dotcom boom. Analysts are fairly confident, however, that things will pick up later in the year. Simon Baker, an analyst at SG Securities, said the situation should improve in the final three months of the year although how much of this optimism revolves around less demanding comparisons in the fourth quarter remains uncertain.

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